Cheeseburger Gothic

Mr Walker leaves the field

Posted 10 hours ago by John Birmingham

I find myself unexpectedly sad at the passing of Max Walker. I enjoyed both his books and his bizarrely unnatural bowling action. He seemed a decent fellow, an ordinary man who managed to stand out, even in the shadows of the Lillee-Thompson collosus.

5 Responses to ‘Mr Walker leaves the field’

Bernie asserts...

Posted 8 hours ago
He was one of my favourites, pity there are not more sportsman like him. RIP Tangles :-(

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FormerlyKnownAsSimon mutters...

Posted 7 hours ago
I second that motion. Bloody melanoma. I've been thinking that with the advent of modern tv back in the 50s these people that became stars in our homes for one reason or another over the decades made them feel closer to us (as opposed to movie stars which you might see on the screen once a year). Now they are starting to reach that age where we drop off from natural causes and it seems more personal. Either that or the reality of my mortality is starting to hit home.

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Lobes mutters...

Posted 6 hours ago
First Tony, then Richie, now Max.

Bill should be very worried :-(

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SZF is gonna tell you...

Posted 4 hours ago
"Tangles" was one of my dad's favourite players for the same reason. He was the journeyman holding his own alongside stars like Lillee, Thomo, Garner and Croft.

I met him once when he was emceeing an event in Sydney 5-6 years ago. He was just as advertised: witty, humble and, in the brief time I got to chat to him, a lovely bloke.

There's a nice tribute to him on the Fox Sports website from the "other Birmingham", Billy.

#fuckcancer

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Brother PorkChop reckons...

Posted 4 hours ago
Much sadness. As Lobes says, the golden oldies are leaving us now and Max was surely deserving of a good bloke award.

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General Havoc's plan of battle

Posted Monday by John Birmingham

I've been getting some awesome briefing from my O Group. Dirk sent me a couple of maps of occupied Europe to help keep everything straight, including a suggestion for corraling the Scandinavian states into the Western alliance. A suggestion I might take up.

Gen Havoc, meanwhile has been getting down to business with a useful mark up of thte Soviet advance.

I'll reconcile the geogrpahies in the draft.

24 Responses to ‘General Havoc's plan of battle’

Dirk mumbles...

Posted Monday
ps: the Isle of Wight Socialist Soviet Republic is a fluke of my software. So no "Lets have tea, comrade ... "

insomniac puts forth...

Posted Monday
I don't know. Could be an interesting quirk.

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Turlogh Dubh O'Brien swirls their brandy and claims...

Posted Tuesday
This looks fantastic!


Any specific reason why Crete is split?

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Murphy_of_Missouri ducks in to say...

Posted Tuesday
I know Northern Italy is pretty much a hold over from Final Impact, thus it would be impossible to retcon that away. But pushing all the way down into Greece? I'm not so sure about that. Yes, there were Greek Communists but I can't imagine that the Allies would simply throw in the towel on that front.






Also, while Churchill seemed to view Italy as, "the soft underbelly," the reality is that it is mountainous, nasty terrain to deal with. Yugoslavia might welcome the Sovs with open arms but other parts would not be quite so willing, especially if they had terrain working in their favor regarding resistance.

Turlogh Dubh O'Brien is gonna tell you...

Posted Yesterday
In order for the Sovs to take over Greece, they'd probably need help from the Yugoslav and Bulgarian communists. Maybe even Albanians.


For what it's worth, the Yugoslavs pretty much ran the show during the Greek Civil War, and keep in mind the British killing of Greek partisans and their supporters in Athens, 1944. So not entirely impossible.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/nov/30/athens-1944-britains-dirty-secret


On the other hand you have the staunchly anti-Communist Greeks, the Albanian Balli Kombetar, the Serbian Royalist Chetniks, Croatian and Bosnian Ustashe...all whom had some or other connections to the Nazis.

Turlogh Dubh O'Brien ducks in to say...

Posted Yesterday
And of course very often fought one another, I should add.

Murphy_of_Missouri reckons...

Posted Yesterday
True, but I don't imagine the sheer weight of a Soviet style blitzkreig even with uptime upgrades would be sufficient for Greece.




That map also pretty much hands the northeastern Med over to the Soviets. On the one hand that'd give NATO (or whatever they form) a serious headache in protecting the Suez and maintaining the sea lanes. On the other hand, the Navy could end up draining a lot of resources away from the Army. And it isn't like the Sovs were the best ship builders, Clancy's fictions notwithstanding.

Murphy_of_Missouri mumbles...

Posted Yesterday
Then there is Turkey. I can't see Turkey rolling over, or even letting the Sovs take Greece. I don't think they'd tolerate that.

Dirk mutters...

Posted Yesterday
Ok let's do the rational:

Objectives: USSR wants always one thing: warm water ports. Even as being the biggest country in the world they are paranoid and claustrophobic. Greece would have fitted that picture. With a retreating wehrmacht in defense of the Reich first and the rest later on the Eastern Front and especially since Yugoslavia would be Stalinist in stead of Tito led (Joe will get him out of the way the first chance he got) the Red Army would have had no obstacles rolling into Greece.


Would the Turks have intervened in 1944? I don't think so. They weren't in Nato yet, had are large but ill equipped army and no air force to speak of. Greece was in a civil war between 1945-49. Only a massive aid flow from UK and later US let the right win there. With the Brits occupied in India and having Suez secure, that task would have landed on the US.


Murphy_of_Missouri mutters...

Posted 15 hours ago
Without control of the Bosporus Strait it is hard to see how the Soviets would be able to make much use of their new found warm water ports. They learned the hard way that just because your port doesn't freeze over ala the Russo-Japanese War, doesn't mean you can utilize it or hold onto it.


An early priority for the Western Commander (do we even call it NATO?) would have to be to ensure that reinforcements in the Med did not make it through the Bosporus Straits. Given the size of the U.S. Navy at the end of World War II, in either time stream, maintaining sufficient capacity in the region with the friendly ports that remain should not be an issue.


I can't imagine The Quiet Room, Truman, Eisenhower, or anyone else, idling letting Stalin consolidate his gains in the expanded buffer regions he has, especially in parts of Europe which were retained by the West, to include the Greeks.


And then there is the matter of Northern Italy. Perhaps I've been spoiled by my recent review for teaching Modern Western Civilization but that part of Italy had a notorious independent streak in each of the major cities. I can't imagine the Soviet occupation would be an easy one, especially if the inhabitants knew that the Sovs never got that far in the original timeline. Add in a lot of covert support for undermining the occupation and I suspect Stalin's grasp on that territory is a lot more slippery than we might think.


Or, to draw a dangerous historical analogy, the Romans made the mistake of expanding too far, grabbing too much territory, then had difficulty retaining it. If anything, by grabbing so much additional buffer zone Stalin may have weakened his hand fatally, thus reducing the lifespan of the Soviet sphere as opposed to lengthening it.

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Murphy_of_Missouri has opinions thus...

Posted Tuesday
I guess I didn't need three of those br bastards.

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Don Bagert reckons...

Posted Yesterday
Switzerland is in with NATO? Wow - all those years of neutrality finally ended. I also got the idea from Final Impact that the Soviets got a lot more of France and Germany than was shown here. Finally, that divided Crete could make for some interesting naval maneuvers down the line.

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jason puts forth...

Posted Yesterday
I am probably showing a serious lack of knowledge here but...

Would the knowledge of future genocides not spark a series of ongoing civil conflicts that could muddy the waters and create three or four sided conflicts?

Murphy_of_Missouri puts forth...

Posted Yesterday
I'd think it would make those ethnic conflicts far worse. Folks would begin jockeying for advantage at the earliest possible moment.


Hard to imagine what a bloodbath it would be in parts of Africa.

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Lulu mutters...

Posted Yesterday
Not very battle-related, but I'm looking at that map thinking that the Soviets would take to the art treasures of Italy the way the Nazis did to Paris in 1940.

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Murphy_of_Missouri ducks in to say...

Posted 15 hours ago
It has been, what, ten years since Final Impact came out? Stalin has the opportunity to do things all over again. Most of what he does seems rational, bumping off future rivals, people who would undermine the system, destroy his reputation, and the like. He is murderous, aggressive, cunning, and intelligent. Unlike Hitler after the early setbacks of the war, he realizes that he isn't much of a general and lets his professionals take over.


Grabbing so much territory, it seems to me, is a mistake his senior leaders would, carefully of course, advise against. They wouldn't be opposed to establishing buffer states, as took place in the original timeline. They wouldn't be opposed to grabbing key choke points such as the Fulda Gap either. However, those generals surely read the same history books many of us have. They'd know that there is a limit to how much territory one can take, hold, consolidate, and absorb. Plus, the further they reach from Mother Russia, the longer their supply chains are.


It is certainly too late to retcon the taking of Northern Italy or parts of Southern France. And maybe Stalin did see to it that Yugoslavia would, after an accident or two, stayed firmly in the Soviet orbit. But grabbing most of Greece without control of the Bosporus strikes me as unwise. The Soviets can't get sufficient naval assets to the region to support it, the terrain is a nightmare to push logistics through (ask the Germans about that) and without the infrastructure to support a fleet the Russians would be setting themselves up for a repeat of their disasters with the Russo-Japanese War.


Thus I'd advise amending the map a bit, leaving Greece out of it. Unless there is a vital story telling reason to have it, like "Stalin's Hammer: Sparta!" then I'd leave that under the control of the Allies.


With regard to the territory the Soviets do have, if they push forward, they'll be stretching their supply chains. Even if they've had ten years to get ready, the Western Allies will have had ten years to figure out how to disrupt those supply chains. In fact, if I were the Supreme Western Commander (who ever that ends up being, there are a number of British and American candidates to chose from since it won't be Ike) my priority would be to use my superior airpower to disrupt those supply lines, strike at logistics facilities, and destroy anything the Sovs might use as I fell back.


However, it is all for nothing if the naval side of matters is not addressed. Stalin has to know, and his Admirals do as well, that they must attrit and/or neutralize American Sea Power in order to have a hope of victory. The American Navy will already have a technological edge in that regard, one that they'll work to maintain and improve upon. While the Sovs might muster quantity it is hard to see how they will find the quality they need. Finally, there is simply the sheer lack of naval experience in the Soviet Navy. It isn't like they have a strong tradition of victory, nor is it seen as the primary military branch.


Thus, I can't see the Sovs achieving the victory they need for the Third Battle of the Atlantic. I see no way they can exploit their positions in Greece to do more than be a nuisance in the Eastern Med. The best case is that Stalin bleeds the Western Forces enough that there is pressure on the homefront to concede defeat.


In that vein, with the social and political forces I mentioned elsewhere, I can see him having some success. He will know that the peace movement would have a hand in bringing an end of the war in Vietnam under the original timeline. He will certainly press that advantage. His propaganda folks will push forward with no end of hashtags on a 1950s style twitter echoing #BlackLivesMatter #SaveMLK and the like. At the same time, he might arrange for folks like Ronald Reagan to have an accident, among other things.

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Turlogh Dubh O'Brien mumbles...

Posted 15 hours ago
How about a part of Greece? Best candidate is northern Greece, possibly including Thessaloniki. Large Slavic minority that would give the Sovs a pretext of reuniting them with their brethren in Yugoslavia. In our timeline, that's where some of the bloodiest battles of the Greek Civil War were fought.

And Stalin will try to tit-for-tat the Allies in support for rebellious minorities, you are right about that. Directorate S will work overtime to recruit disenfranchised minorities ranging from the IRA to the Sioux.

Would they go so far as to take famous future presidents out? Or would Kohlhammer and the gang give them a reverse-for-life Secret Service detail?

Murphy_of_Missouri swirls their brandy and claims...

Posted 13 hours ago
Having the territory without the means to exploit their value as naval bases negates the advantage of bothering to take them. There would need to be a significant investment in naval infrastructure to support a significant force. And that infrastructure would have to come overland or they'd have to get the Turks to sign off on that.


A reverse Secret Service detail? Maybe after one or more future VIPs got bumped off. Some, like Bill or Hillary Clinton might not even be born as the people we know them as. In fact, as the new timeline marches on they may well find that a host of folks do not materialize at all even if their parents are alive. The parents might not meet, might conceive at different times, experience different opportunities which would affect a number of variables that are impossible to predict.


Thus, I think a rule I'd advise following is that anyone born prior to 1942 or close therein is going to come out as we know them from history. So, following that rule, my father would definitely be born as he is since he predates the Transition. My mom, born in 1945, might not be born in the new timeline. Or maybe she shows up at a different time.


It is entirely possible that you could get to say 1980 and most of the people who exist who were born post-Transition bear very little resemblance to the records of notables from the original timeline. No Van Halen, no Bryan Adams, and the list could go on and on.

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HAVOCK21 asserts...

Posted 11 hours ago
Murph,

one of the things I thought would be on Joes big arse list is access, an enabler for that might be if he has access to the med via southern France or parts of Italy. Its not necessarily a place where I would start massive construction as they would be a target, but Joe aint knonw for being entirely rational ( speaking from personal experience there!!!! ) FK I AM AS LEVEL AS YOU CAN FKN WELL GET!

But it would give him access, and be a stepping stone to North Africa as well......................more OIL! too

Murphy_of_Missouri asserts...

Posted 10 hours ago
Logistics is a rubber band and the further you extend, the more stretched it becomes. As for oil, Russia has their own supplies. Aside from asset denial there is no need for them to take that step.


As for the warm water ports, without the infrastructure to support a naval presence for which they should be intended, they are targets anyway. The British alone would go to great lengths to neutralize any threat to their access to the Suez, we saw that in our own timeline.

jl is gonna tell you...

Posted 9 hours ago
Logistics are the achilles heel of Soviet might. In terms of an OOB, they have overwhelming conventional forces. Of course, the larger your force, the worse strain on your logistics systems. Soviet planners have certainly calculated what supplies (x) are needed to achieve (y) results, and have also calculated (p) for "plenty".

A key advantage the Soviets have is they have a definite start time for hostilities, and they probably have been staging supplies for years. Of course, western leaders, being no fools, have hopefully been doing likewise- in our timeline, the accumulation of supplies ran far and deep, so much so that surplus from the cold war, where not destroyed, is still readily available in large amounts at surplus stores and hotspots in the third world world-wide.

Murphy_of_Missouri would have you know...

Posted 8 hours ago
Logistics and their relative lack of Blue Water Naval experience.

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Murphy_of_Missouri asserts...

Posted 7 hours ago
The Sovs certainly would know that they need plenty in terms of logistics. The question is whether or not their economy could generate that to the degree that would provide success on the battlefield. They have to be aware not only of recent history concerning the Wehrmacht's troubles, but also Napoleon's woes more than a hundred years before.


Also, we in the West had a habit of exaggerating the capabilities of the Soviets in our own timeline. Even with uptime knowledge, technology, and foresight, would that be sufficient for them to generate the resources for an ambitious campaign to take the European continent? I'm not so sure.


We probably ought to ask this question of Stalin.


Is he a True Believer in the Communist Way? Or is he just a Tyrant? I'd admit, I am not quite sure since my areas of emphasis are elsewhere. Does he really believe in the historical dialectic and the like? Does he really believe Communist is the path forward? Or is he just the survivor who ended up at the top of the pyramid after two decades of power struggles?


If it is the later, and he is a survivor who doesn't fully buy into the ideologies of Communism, then why wouldn't he take a different lesson from history? He might chose instead to focus on the reforms instituted by the Chinese in the late 1980s. That MIGHT give him the revenue he needs to make his military plans viable. However, wealth and prosperity tend to make people soft and insular. The very people who provide that success may well push against any military campaign.


And even if he did adopt those reforms, the Russians simply don't seem to be able to compete at the same level as their Western counterparts today. There has to be socio-cultural reasons for that, again since that isn't my field, I couldn't say for certain.

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HAVOCK21 asserts...

Posted 2 hours ago
Murph,

you are implying that he is rational, he's certainly not by our standards. I guess you could count on him reacting in an entirely negative way in which we would, but its power, delusion and Christ knows what else. Whether he likes Communism or not, I think does not matter. Its a mechanism that put him in power and his personality keeps him there I guess.

I think you can count on him taking his Generals advise, so long as it fits with his requirements and thats to win, but generally it does also not make him an idiot too.

I suspect that he would use the 5-10 years to rapidly build up strength, and thats only to the point where two factors come into play I think.

1 Will be the pint where he believes he can win, the other is the point at where he might believe that NATO/US etc have sufficient strength to stop him. Either is a trigger for him to attack.

Where will he attack. I would think all over so as to draw forces away as much as possible. But the main will be Europe as we all will know. NATO has less space than it did before to trade for time, if he can strike deep enough with Special forces and para drops to disrup NATO in the early stages he's in with a real shot. If NATO is dumb enough to have a lot og gear pre positioned in France / Germany etc then they would be key targets.

Personally I would stage a lot in Britan, its much harder to reach and NATO has the shipping left over.

yes, we all know that the seas will be BATO owned, but that wont Stop joe having a crack, like I mentioned before. Planes are cheap and so are ALCM adn SSM's. Id bee looking for large scale strikes by air against shipping, look at chock points with SSMS and I guess...well I would NUKE ICELAND if I was RUSSIAN. And take it out of play. The pay off would be good and deny NATO a large base. Make killing shipping much easier too.

SOSUS JB.......its a must.

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All your cool shit are belong to Slim Jim now

Posted September 21 into Books by John Birmingham

Think I’m going to need my own Staff Group to plan and organise this war. Been getting some very detailed and valuable material in addition to the thread below. So thanks to all involved in that.

It’s convinced me to bring WW 3.1 forward in my writing schedule. I’ll start it after I finish A Girl in Time, which is now sitting at about 35K words of a planned 90K manuscript. I wanted to get it out before the US election, for reasons which will become obvious when you read it. But I can already tell that’s not gonna happen. And I don’t want to rush the project (and have it explode on me, Samsung style - oooh! Burn!). So I’ll be taking the couple of extra weeks needed to make sure that Girl gets all the attention she needs.

It’s now time to cast the speculative net a little wider than Orders of Battle.

One of the things I enjoyed most in the Stalin’s Hammer series was playing with the economic and social histories of the 1950s. I think the cinematic premiere of Capture Von Braun! was my favourite, although I also enjoyed Harry’s walk through London at the start of Cairo, and building my own Hilton hotel later in that book.

In Rome, you might recall, there was some talk during Harry’s briefing (at the US embassy?) of the Soviets flooding western markets with cheap consumer goods, following the uptime China model. I don’t think this would have actually happened in reality, even in an alternate reality, but I’m going with it because I can. So there.

What I’d be interested in collecting over the next few days are any other ideas, thought balloons, wild speculations etc, as to how the economy, society and culture of the West would have changed since the Transition.

Something other than ‘All your cool shit are belong to Slim Jim now’

88 Responses to ‘All your cool shit are belong to Slim Jim now’

Scott Stanley ducks in to say...

Posted September 21
I think what would happen is all the easy stuff would be invented. Meaning the crazes that we all thought, "Why didn't we think of that"

Reality TV. Some form of Facebook on a primitive internet.

Political Parties devoted to, "just cuz you say the future means we need to do this policy, screw you future progressives, we're keeping it going THIS way!" Instead of left wing right wing, it would be TEMP vs 21.

John Birmingham reckons...

Posted September 21
OMG. 1950s Facebook. This HAS to happen now.

Turlogh Dubh O'Brien mumbles...

Posted Thursday
And with it, online dating. Why go to socials, sock hops and blind dates when you can find a date yourself. Add some women's lib and there you have it, an early sexual revolution.

Dirk asserts...

Posted Thursday
on communication:

Coaxial cable was around since 1941.

Quote from wiki: Ethernet is a family of computer networking technologies commonly used in local area networks (LANs) and metropolitan area networks (MANs). It was commercially introduced in 1980 and first standardized in 1983 as IEEE 802.3, and has since been refined to support higher bit rates and longer link distances. Over time, Ethernet has largely replaced competing wired LAN technologies such as token ring, FDDI and ARCNET.

The original 10BASE5 Ethernet uses coaxial cable as a shared medium, while the newer Ethernet variants use twisted pair and fiber optic links in conjunction with hubs or switches. Over the course of its history, Ethernet data transfer rates have been increased from the original 2.94 megabits per second (Mbit/s) to the latest 100 gigabits per second (Gbit/s). The Ethernet standards comprise several wiring and signaling variants of the OSI physical layer in use with Ethernet.

Systems communicating over Ethernet divide a stream of data into shorter pieces called frames. Each frame contains source and destination addresses, and error-checking data so that damaged frames can be detected and discarded; most often, higher-layer protocols trigger retransmission of lost frames. As per the OSI model, Ethernet provides services up to and including the data link layer.

Since its commercial release, Ethernet has retained a good degree of backward compatibility. Features such as the 48-bit MAC address and Ethernet frame format have influenced other networking protocols. The primary alternative for some uses of contemporary LANs is Wi-Fi, a wireless protocol standardized as IEEE 802.11.

For Optical fiber communication you will need:

optical fibers: created in 1954, so that could be sooner

Gallium arsenide semiconductor lasers: laser developed origanaly in 1960, but you could push it forward I think by 10-15 years.

Quote from wiki: Coherent light emission from a gallium arsenide (GaAs) semiconductor diode (the first laser diode) was demonstrated in 1962 by two US groups led by Robert N. Hall at the General Electric research center and by Marshall Nathan at the IBM T.J. Watson Research Center. There has been ongoing debate as to whether IBM or GE invented the first laser diode which was largely based on theoretical work by William P. Dumke at IBM Labs in Yonkers, NY. The priority is given to General Electric group who have obtained and submitted their results earlier; they also went further and made a resonant cavity for their diode. It was initially speculated Ben Lax amongst and other leading physicists that silicon or germanium could be used to create a lasing effect, but William P. Dumke insisted that these materials would not work and instead suggested Gallium Arsenide would be a good candidate according to his theoretical work. The first visible wavelength GaAs laser diode was demonstrated by Nick Holonyak, Jr. later in 1962.

and these gents would be nice to have on board too I think: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Traitorous_eight

Electricity generating windmills were first created in the 1890's so that wouldn't be a stretch either

So in all: doable if you can get a chip to market. ingredients are all there (tv as monitor, specs on cables and connectors etc).

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Thalesian mutters...

Posted September 21
I've been thinking about the rise of religious fundamentalism.

Would post-emergence culture be more or less religious? Would they have the stark Christian vs Islam semi-divide that we have now? Would Israel exist in the form we have today?

I don't really have any answers to these questions... maybe someone else does?

John Birmingham reckons...

Posted September 21
I don't think you can get that divide without 9-11. You've got the preconditions with the west's need for oil and the installation of the House of Saud. But they need to come here and kill a lot of us to gain our attention.

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insomniac swirls their brandy and claims...

Posted September 21
Would they be transitioning to a carbonless economy? Maybe advanced solar panel are beyond their reach to start but wind and tidal are pretty much mechanical devices already in use. Would they say no to nuclear or go down the path of more than ever?
Given the Soviet Union is becoming China will capitalism just keep on going despite signs today that we should be doing something different? Will there be some sort of socialist capitalism model that doesn't end in the ever widening gap between rich and poor? Will there be a 1% or will that just be Slim Jim?
What happened to other wars that would have occurred already ie Korea, or starting soon ie Vietnam? Didn't happen or subsumed into WW3.

John Birmingham would have you know...

Posted September 21
Big Oil is in the middle of destroying LA's trams. I don't see them letting solar get a foot in. But I'd like it happen, so maybe it will.

damian asserts...

Posted Friday
Even as late as the 50s not all oil folks were part of the Big Bad. Southern USA would still have wildcatters and rugged individualists getting out and about into parts of the world where the drilling might be good in search of a plucky fortune. So a character like THAT taking an interest in solar would be interesting.

Suggest a google earth sweep of West Texas even now...

Dirk asserts...

Posted Friday
somebody like this guy perhaps: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T._Boone_Pickens Saw him on a Dutch tv doc the other day ...

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Rob mumbles...

Posted September 21
I expect that the English people will look at history and fear for their post world war 2 social welfare /national health model of economics as dead in the water. But this might only bring the left to ferment earlier than the Thatcher/neo con agenda of the 80s and 90s. They might actually do some fighting in the streets and Pete Townsend wont need to write 'wont get fooled again'.

Also pete townsend might get influenced by the likes of Millions of Dead cops and Black Flag and bring hardcore punk rock to the 60s, instead of RnB.

Crustie punks organising raves and house music in the 50s and 60s would be a fun idea too.

Corduroy might not make an appearance in the fashion world. (thank Christ for that)

John Birmingham ducks in to say...

Posted September 21
Could possibly lead to even MOAR socialism as they try to embed the political culture.

NBlob would have you know...

Posted Friday
Or more corduroy

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Dave W mumbles...

Posted September 21
Vaccines, birth control, anti-biotics, big pharma! Some of which leads us through to earlier women's lib, better management of superbugs, 3rd world population issues and designer drugs (cf Rob's 50s & 60s raves).

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jason swirls their brandy and claims...

Posted September 21
I'm seeing a rush for raw materials. I believe there are only three major lithium mines in the world, all in South America. I'd definitely be trying to own them to control the development of batteries and therefore portable devices. The battle for Australia's natural resources, including uranium, could get ugly with China on the doorstep and no big brother with a nuclear bomb to back us up.

John Birmingham asserts...

Posted September 21
I see a massive acceleration of an already massive migration program to Australia, possibly leading to some tension with other English speaking countries for poaching their population.

Dirk would have you know...

Posted Thursday
When was the great Greek immigration wave to Oz? With Greece occupied, it would mean in this time line less, or more like boatpeople. Greeks fleeing via Turkey for example. But there are a lot of people adrift I think. Displaced Frenchmen and Italians, Poles and Czechs who fought at the side of the Allies ...

insomniac has opinions thus...

Posted Thursday
Don't forget about the rare earth metal sources.

Turlogh Dubh O'Brien asserts...

Posted Thursday
No Germany = no Turks migrating there. Will the other war-ravaged economies open their doors to cheap foreign labor?

Dirk swirls their brandy and claims...

Posted Thursday
Well Germany still exists, but the Turks came in the 60's after the Italians and Spanish.

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WarDog asserts...

Posted September 21
I suspect there would be a big push from many sides of the political spectrum to make all uptime tech and ideas non patentable and non-copyrightable.

There endeth Slim Jim's empire.

I say that because any attempt to copyright/patent uptime tech invalidates itself by prior art. And there would be lots of vested interests that want that tech but don't want to have to pay for it.

So I'd imagine that for a while, it would be a free for all in which everything in a non copyrightable knock-off. Essentially it would be the 50s on steroids in the 50s.

And then you would start to see the glimmer of new 21C tech which would be the real gold.

John Birmingham is gonna tell you...

Posted September 21
I see patents and copyright law failing in the face of this, but Slim Jim's first mover advtange and his natural douchiness will stand him in good stead

insomniac ducks in to say...

Posted September 21
With all of the other 21C information making its way back it would be impossible to believe that a full set of patent applications would not have and as such it would be prior art in any attempt to capitalise on it by protecting it. As you say SJD would by being the early mover. Friends in high places would also help.

HAVOCK21 mutters...

Posted Wednesday
I see Australia having more extensive territories.

Perhaps Malaysia, Singapore and hell yes, Bali too. Given an intake of locals, our tech which nobody seems to have mentioned. The US cannot do all the work in Asia, maybe some additional bases too, Brunei and Sarawak as additional Australian states ( territories)

Can see a tap into the labor markets in Asia too.

Given the push by the ruskies, chrissy Island gets a big arse airfield too. RAAF base. Look for Aus controlling the straights of Malacca perhaps in concert with Britain and the US.

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ShaneAlpha ducks in to say...

Posted September 21
It's got me wondering about the British Empire.

Would it break up the way it did? I think the British might have learned some uptime lessons and would have pushed for a more Federal form of the Commonwealth of Nations and hopefully have handled self-rule devolution better than in our timeline.

And Palestine/Israel is a whole 'nother level of septic mess. Not forgetting Lebanon, which in the 50's was a tourist hotspot. And with a divided France would North Africa even be a French concern?

And what has happened to the big C21 items by then? They wouldn't have been able to maintain the Havoc or Trident at a C21 level of capability, eventually something vital would go sprung that they could not repair/replace.


North Atlantic - the better sensors developed from C21 would make the G-I-UK gap a killing ground if the Sovs tried to force it. Especially with the leap the Havoc gave the sub designers, which the Sovs didn't get.

With that big a Soviet penetration post WW2.3 all the European continental and British governments would probably embrace a larger Reserve/Militia model than our timeline. Possible something along the lines of the Swiss model, but with a lot more man portable anti- armour.

Australia would be booming even more than it did in out timeline. They know where the major resources are. There would be even more post war European migration. Can't see the white Australia policy being repealed. If they're smart, massive constriction aid to Indonesia and assisting Damiri to consolidate his authority.

Dirk would have you know...

Posted Thursday
Well for starters JB referenced in Rome the Principalities. So an undivided India (maybe federalized) but on a leech from London.

On subs: true uptime research will be used. But the soviets would lag behind in technology I think. So they will take the obvious route: build inferior subs, like Whiskey, Romeo, Foxtrot or Tango, but build them in huge numbers (500-700 hulls). Fight NATO until they run out of torpedo's so to say.

On mobilization: i concur on personal weapons for reservists. I would go for vehicle based AT weapons (pickup with a Tow or Milan) for Landwehr/rear echelon troops at nearby/local barracks. That way you are more mobile.

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John Birmingham is gonna tell you...

Posted September 21
So many good ideas!

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Guy asserts...

Posted Wednesday
The thing about the British is our inate conservatism which combines with a surprising tolerance and liberalism. This is at our best, of course. Unfortunately we can do bigotry as well.

British history is a story of evolution rather than revolution. We change, but we do it at arelatively gentle pace. This is why we avoided the revolutionary excesses of France and the continent.

The interesting issue here is how the arrival of thousands of time travellers from the 21st Century would affect the evolutionary process.

Personally I think the pragmatists would realise that all was up withe the Empire as it stood - plenty of people realised this even at the time. The future would lie in forging partnerships with the USA, Australasia and other like minded countries, while offering the rest of the Empire independence, although trying to manage the process to maintain stability.

Britain would recognise that they were the one European power able to join America in forging the future. Germany was bombed and defeated, while France is partially occupied.

A world will emerge with the west dominated to a much greater extent by the "Anglosphere" than in OTL. It's the English speaking world against the communists.

Socialism as we knew it in the post war decades would have its credibility largely removed when people saw the record of what would have happened (stagnation, strikes, etc). Equally, the crusty Conservatism of the same period would be likely to give way much earlier to a Thatcherite free-market liberalism. Classless capitalism will emerge thirty years early, and the country would be much richer as a result, especially as continental European rivals would be less of a threat thanks to the new post-war map and Asian rivals occupied by the Russians.

Domestically we would see the rise of the teenager faster than happened in OTL. Also, the rise of (gasp) sex. The example of the uptimers would bring forward pressure to legalise homosexuality and abortion, the acceptance of pre-marital sex and loads of pornography circulating through the new technological platforms.

Evolution would come under strain as older people born in the reign of Queen Victoria come face to face with gay clubs and porn mags. A greatly exaggerated generation gap would be likely to develop.

Having said that, most of the rest of the world would happily swap their problems for those experienced by the British, Americans and Australians.

John Birmingham is gonna tell you...

Posted Thursday
On the sexual revolution I tend to agree with the The Rhino that the example of the uptimers might do the exact opposite of bringing forth the legalisation of gay marriage etc. you're dealing with a comparatively conservative and traumatised culture. I suspect there'd be a heap of push back. Although, of course, you would indeed have, er, push forward from the uptimers.

Dirk ducks in to say...

Posted Thursday
Oh sure there will be friction on sex. But in this time frame you will already have forerunners. Hugh Hefner started Playboy in 53: well he wouldn't have to advertise now. Masters and Johnson started their research in 57.

And sure, you won't be kicking of in Salt Lake city or in de deep south bible belt like west Texas. But Vermont, New York city, San Francisco, Hollywood, maybe even free and rebuilding Berlin with a surplus of 26-35 year old women?

sidenote: interesting character: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlie_Wilson_(Texas_politician)

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John Petherick mumbles...

Posted Wednesday
The social and religious effects could be really interesting to explore ... reaction to the Up-Timers could go in so many different ways.

Would Vatican II happen early? Or, happen at all? Could there be a schism within the Catholic Church over future events?

What would L. Ron Hubbard do, presented with future history concerning Scientology? What about all of the other aspiring prophets, gurus, etc. who have been handed blueprints on forming new religious movements?

Someone mentioned lithium mining, where a couple operations in South America currently dominate world supply due to cost of production. The Up-Timers would deliver information on *every* major mineral or oil discovery in the coming century, not to mention 21st century anti-submarine warfare technology that could be used to find other, previously undiscovered metallic ore deposits.

Industrial development is really difficult to predict ... entire industries might not develop as the UpTime information causes leap-frogging over intermediate stages ... from vacuum tubes to integrated circuits in one bound. Future information about health and environmental consequences might have an effect depending on social and economic pressures in particular countries. Asbestos might stay in the ground and electricity generation will look a lot different.

From a public health perspective, the late 1940's or 50's might be early enough to prevent or severely curtail the spread of HIV. Information about broad-spectrum antibiotics might curtail the development of antibiotic resistance, or advance widespread resistance a couple decades.

Dirk puts forth...

Posted Wednesday
With the Soviets about 500meters from the Sistine Chappel and Pius XII being ill in 1955 (wiki it) the Vatican could do bold things. Angelo Giuseppe Roncalli (aka John XXIII) could be elected in secret to become "Papa Designata" and stashed somewhere out of harms way. And then Vatican II can happen. And even more expanded even then now. Child abuse: no tolerance. Celibacy: there are to many sexual frustrated people in the clergy (male and female) so let the have a spouse. A gay one may be a step to progressive but kick it around.

Agree on the health and safety things. Cancer research and trauma-care get also a kick from free 70 years of experience. Smallpox irradication, child innoculation and polio prevention ... no brainers.

Turlogh Dubh O'Brien ducks in to say...

Posted Thursday
On the other side of the coin, will there be a push towards revival of Russian Orthodoxy to undermine the Soviet rule? Or will Stalin emulate China and just say, "Sure, you can have your bishops - but the state picks them."

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Dirk ducks in to say...

Posted Wednesday
My 2-bits for modern utopia:
If you take research on what drives society, you will get a few parameters that have huge impacts.
1. Education/information
2. Power generation/consumption
3. Sanitation and Healthcare
4. Infrastructure & Housing
5. Political, Religious and economic organization
6. The ratio of primary (agriculture/mining), secondary (manufacturing) and tertiary (services) sectors in an economy
7. Technical advancements/science
8. Specific local factors & world politics

Ok maybe it's good to start with a baseline.
Let's meet Jan Modaal, your average European male in general, your average dutch male in particular. Born in 1910, Jan was 28 in 1938. As 80% of the population he was a christian, would have had 8 years of education between 6-14 (only 10% would have had a high-school degree or higher) and started to work as an apprentice at 15. After his two years of national service in 1928-1930, he married Truus, a local girl from more or less the same background he was.
He would be:
working for around 48 hours a week (mo-sa),
do some repairing chores at home or tend to his livestock in the evening,
Maybe after getting his week's wages on Friday go to the local watering hole (about one in 5 males were what we would describe as alcoholics), which could lead him to going fifty shades on Truus with his belt when he came home (domestic abuse was around 10%),
listen to the wireless, read a paper, or more rarely read a book from the local library, if it was not the bible he was into. Reading a book was rare. Mostly the doctor, the reverent/pastor, the notarial/real estate lawyer, your odd local nobleman/landowner or one or two local business tycoons did that. They were the only learned men in the community.
have three meals a day,
go to bed by 10 and fuck Truus three times a week, creating in his livespan on average 3-6 kids.
In the meantime, Truus would raise the kids, do the washing, cleaning, sowing, cooking, a little gardening, the shopping at the local butcher, baker and grocer (supermarkets were not invented yet over here), look after their parents who would be living on walking distance and be dead tired in the evening. But she was dependent so divorce was not an option. Also the social pressure of the time would keep her down. Before they were married, she had worked as a shop assistant, but was kicked out when she said "I do".
Weren't it not for the war Jan would have statistically lived to be around 64 (Truus to 66).
In September 1939 Jan was called up as an reservist, and was bored senseless in the Phoney war until April/May 1940. After a few days (in Holland)/weeks (rest of western Europe) of fighting he was a POW for a few weeks and send home afterwards. The Modaal family survived the war not being either in the resistance (about 1% was roughly 90.000 people in the Netherlands) or in some form of extreme right wing activity (also around 1%). Out of a population of around 9 million, around in our timeline around 205.000 didn't. For the most part those casualties were Jews (around 105.000), political prisoners (25.000 either shot or worked to death in camps), service men dying in action (15.000), bombingvictims or civilians caught in the crossfire (20.000) and those who starved in the Hungerwinter of 1944-45 (40.000).
Here the first change kicks in: being liberated totally in September 1944 without the destruction of for example Zealand and Arnhem instead of may 1945, would have resulted in around 50.000 less fatalities and even more wounded. Also Dutch infrastructure (Rotterdam harbor, dykes in the southwest) and factories wouldn't have been that hard hit.
So let's say we are in January 1945 and the following things happen:
1. Education/information
Disclosure of the Holocaust. This will lead to a more positive stance towards Israel.
Disclosure of abuse in clergy. This led to an accelerated loss of faith in the church and falling numbers of believers.
Shortening the workweek from 48 to 40 hours, highering the compulsory age of education from 15 to 18, with only a nominal tuition fee and introducing free but compulsory courses for the 18+ generation. Re-education keeps your workers-class occupied, gives them a chance to better themselves, and increases your international competitive edge.
2. Power generation/consumption
The Netherlands now knows 15 years early, it's sitting on the largest bubble of natural gas in Western Europe. So it will invest in harnessing that first, but at the same time renewing it's infrastructure and housing-stock to be prepared for the "Green Revolution". So the new burroughs in Holland, will be built for installing solar paneling by having roofs facing south, so that in 20-30 years time (around the 1970's oil crisis) you can upgrade very fast and cheaply. Infrastructural ducts built in the new streets and upgraded to those parts of the country worth saving, would make a fast outroling of natural gas piping (or block heating) and telecommunication also very cheap and fast for the future. Further gains would be made by building up an National electricity grid with a lot of spare capacity, and going from 110V to 220Volts 20 years ahead of time. This to make electricity production and distribution more efficient and less prone to malfunction.
3. Sanitation and Healthcare & 4. Infrastructure & Housing
Apart from the housing issue, the Dutch quickly improve their road (connecting them to the German Autobahns in the east, and similar schemes in Belgium in the south), rail and waterway infrastructure. Rotterdam, Vlissingen, Amsterdam en Delfzijl harbors are expanded en made ready for container shipping and for Reforger type troop movements. Extra land is created in the former Zuiderzee, by making not only the Flevopolders but also the Markerwaard ready for population and agriculture. The Flevopolders were ready in 1954, the Markerwaard will be in the early sixties. And that extra real estate is needed too with the baby-boom and migration.
Running water, the introduction of a National health insurance and a (abide watered down) National Pension Scheme did the rest to boost life expectancy from 64 before the war to well over 70 in the early fifties.
With the decline of the clergy, anti conception came available in 1950. Abortion, pornography and euthanasia were legalized in 1952, followed by prostitution and canabis in 1954. The growth of the latter was strictly state controlled but highly lucrative.
5. Political, Religious and economic organization and 6. The ratio of primary (agriculture/mining), secondary (manufacturing) and tertiary (services) sectors in an economy
In 1940 the ratio would have been 30% primary, 40% secondary, 30 percent tertiary.
With new technical insights and Marshall aid, production in agriculture increased 5 fold in only a couple of years. Secondary sectors were increased by buying up interesting parts of the German economy (shipbuilding and some aircraft production, Belgium beating them by buying up Mauser/Heckler&Koch for merger with Fabrique National and the Brits and to a lesser extant the French concentrating on buying strategic stakes in the nascent German auto industry).
This leading to full employment in 1948, the Dutch started to import cheap German, Spanish and displaced Italian and French workers. Moroccan, Turkish, Surinamese and Antillian migrants were no longer an option.
7. Technical advancements/science
With the liberation in 1944 a lot of patents and designs came available for the likes of Philips (electronics), Hollandse Signaal (radar), ASML (computing), Stork (enginering), Werkspoor/Holec (diesel and electric engines), DAF (cars and trucks), Fokker (airplanes), Organon (pharma), DSM and AKZO (chemicals) and Rijn-Schelde-Verolme shipping.
Futher investment in education and science helped to harness those patents and create the Dutch Wirtschaftswunder, surpassing even that of the German one.
The Soviets dumping household appliances (toasters, vacuum-cleaners, washing-machines) had a couple of effects though. Phillips would have gotten overrun by those cheap stuff and would more concentrating on electronics and medical systems, boosting research in those fields. And women's rights with a lightening of their workload would be springloaded too. Was Stalin a secret feminist, did he saw this as a way to destabilize the west or was this just lucky?
8. Specific local factors & world politics
8a. Indonesia:
The Dutch are furious about the loss of Indonesia. In an intricate game of good cop (Kollhammer and the Australian government) vs. bad cop (Prince Bernhard and foreign ministers Stikker and Luns) Moertopo got a choice: pay silver in the form of
a. only partial nationalization of Dutch assets in Indonesia (for ex. Royal Dutch (oil), Biliton (mining), and cash crops and spices) and getting Dutch assistance/know-how to build up infrastructure and production capacity. Indonesian markets would stay open for Dutch imports to, the Dutch taking care also for distribution of Indonesian products in Europe.
b. paying out a billion dollars a year to the Dutch government for a period of 25 years.
c. being rearmed and trained by the Dutch government at Indonesia's expense with surplus WW2 weaponry at first and watered down modern equipment in the early fifties
d. granting independence to the Mollucas, Eastern Timor (Portugese) and Papua (the latter as a whole would become an Australian dependency).
or face an full scale invasion like that in 1946, which would have cost Indonesia at least a 100.000 casualties.
Moertopo, the pragmatist, chose to pay. As extra insurance the Dutch found and captured 2 out of the 3 main rivals to Moertopo, namely Soekarno and Hatta. They are put on trail for their role in the Japanese occupation and given life sentences at her majesties pleasure and shipped of to a penal colony in Surinam. Every time Moertopo complains about the silver, he's asked if he thinks amnesty for those two would make for an nice Christmas gift ...
8b. Supplying Israel
Ever the trading nation, but feeling having a debt to Israel for having aided in the deportation and killing of over a 100.000 of their kin, the Dutch decided to help build up the place. Making a small profit on the side wasn't frowned upon either.
Dutch agents all over the world scowered up surplus German, US and UK made arms, shipped them home, refurbished them and send them with ammo and spare parts straight to Tel Aviv and Eilat harbors. Israeli military personnel was also trained in the Netherlands and the Israeli arms and electronic industries given a shot in the arm by Dutch investment.
8.c Europe
Seeing it could not go back to its neutral past, the Netherlands became one of the founding members of NATO in 1945. A breakthrough was the formation of the combined Benelux navy in 1949 latter also incorporating the German North Sea squadron. The Dutch, Belgian and nascent Luxembourgian Air Force also work closely together especially on training issues. And the Dutch arms-, shipping and aviation industry with the lack of German, Italian and partly French competition is booming.
It also was part of the first group of European Community of Coal and Steel in 1946 and the subsequent European Free trade zone of 1947. The Dutch are in favor of even bigger steps, proposing a European Union in 1960. Though in favor of it, Churchill and to an lesser extant De Gaulle are dragging their feet about it, fearing a loss of influence.

Hmmm did I leave some stuff out?

John Petherick mumbles...

Posted Wednesday
Of course, the large nickel, copper and gold mines in Indonesia would be very, very attractive to the Dutch government. Particularly since 10th generation nickel-pig iron technology would be available from the Up-Timers. Giving up Irian Jaya would be a tough choice, then, because of the Grasberg Mine.[br][br]
The changed end of the War would significantly reduce post-War Dutch emigration. Instead of refugees and war brides heading (mainly) to Canada, it would be dissenters from the new political and social order heading to ... say ... a recalcitrant nationalist South Africa. The emigration of farmers which occurred in the late 20th century moves up a couple decades.

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Joe swirls their brandy and claims...

Posted Wednesday
Came to post the same thing about resorces in Aust. There'd be a minerals rush on all over Oz, and then hangover when state governments say "use it or lose it". Big money lost/made.
Plus all the o&g fields would be slated for development, but probably in a more orderly fashion due to technical difficulties in getting NW shelf & other offshore deposits up.
What about Aust/Nz troops in sth Japan? ANZAC - Honushu Plain?

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MuddyRunner is gonna tell you...

Posted Thursday
It's perhaps only a small thing, but I'd really like to see Alan Turing NOT being hounded to an early death by the British authorities on account of his homosexuality. Maybe the more liberal attitudes the Uptimers bring with them could alter the Establishment's behaviour sufficiently such that this doesn't happen? He could then go on to found an ARM-equivalent a few decades earlier than happened in our time.

DaveC mutters...

Posted Thursday
Agree about Turing. Give him a safe environment and a flexi-pad and who knows what contribution he could make to the war effort? It raises an interesting point about resurrecting dead people, or rather, to stop them dying?

Imagine George Orwell organising resistance cells behind Soviet lines? Or J.F.K's older, much more glamorous fly-boy brother, Joseph, becoming a admiral with political ambitions?

There's also the possibility of turning former foes? Imagine a different foreign policy result where a Captain Heath equivalent could persuade Fidel and Che, or Ho Chi Minh, to use their charisma for the allied side?

Finally, while the weather changed, we can assume that all geological events would play out as in the original timeline. (not so relevant in 55 and 56 except for a big quake in Greece). But that would change natural disasters for 70 odd years.

John Birmingham would have you know...

Posted Thursday
All your Turings are belong to California now.

Dave W would have you know...

Posted Thursday
Disaster response- and planning. Skopje mid-60s, get the people out before it happens.

Murphy_of_Missouri is gonna tell you...

Posted Thursday
The weather patterns changed, per Final Impact. Why wouldn't everything else?

Dave C asserts...

Posted Thursday
Valid point, Murph. Perhaps it did. My idea came from the perspective that a butterfly's flutter might cause a hurricane on the other side of the world, but landing a few extra ships may not have altered tectonic plate momentum or magma distribution?

Dirk mumbles...

Posted Thursday
Agree on the tectonic plates and the quakes. ps you wanna get Harry Flowers to the zone too https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colossus_computer

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Rhino puts forth...

Posted Thursday
There are many, many places in the 40's/50's US that are not going to welcome these godless, immoral uptimers with open arms. i would expect that there would be a tremendous amount of backlash against a lot of the societal changes ... so much so, that the riots of the 60's will look like play time in comparison.

The children of the 60's were raised by parents born after the depression. They saw the birth of the juggernaut of the American Dream and lived much easier lives than those of their parents and were probably more open to the next level of evolution in society in the 60's. Since all of these societal changes are moved forward by a decade and a half, AND, exponentially disruptive as they are not arising organically, PLUS the young adults of the WW3.1 world were raised by adults whose formative years were spent during the great depression EQUALS massive cultural frisson.

I could see a very real threat to the cohesion of the union.

Turlogh Dubh O'Brien mutters...

Posted Thursday
Perhaps instead of the revolts of '68, we have the revolts of '58? And the likes of George Wallace get a counter-movement going?

Joe mutters...

Posted Thursday
Yeah I can see some serious stresses. But it won't just be the US. With uptimers mainly settling in Sydney, London as well as LA, you'll have 3 islands of 21C bobbing around in 50's ville. Maybe even more of a split between those cities and the rest. And they'll attract anyone who wants a small taste of uptime & be the targets for all the loathing of die-hard downtimers.

NBlob mutters...

Posted Friday
Yeah but, I think you overlook the appeal of the Shiny. Parents have jacked up at the "degeneracy" of Young People. Time's tide sweeps away the concerns of the previous generations, they can gesticulate & curse at clouds but 1950 post transition would ( I believe) look a lot more like 1980 than 1960. The injection of 7(?) decades of culture would simply shatter the status quo.

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Turlogh Dubh O'Brien puts forth...

Posted Thursday
I think Hollywood will at first have a field day with the movie possibilities that can be made, but then will balloon and oversaturate the market quickly. Stalin, of course, will not be outdone and will try to export movies of his own (remember, he hated John Wayne with a vengeance). Something along the lines of East German cowboy movies that portrayed the Native Americans in a more positive light vis-a-vis imperialism.

Sports will become a great industry. Jerseys will sell like hotcakes. Will there be a Champions League? There must. The Soviets may have a Fraternal Nations League as well. Will basketball go worldwide?

Video games? World at War type of stuff? Flight emulation? Sports simulation? Massive online RPGs?

Literature? More sci-fi. More alt-history even in mainstream books. Books dealing with the aftermath of the war and the Transition. Probably less Tolkien-esque stuff.

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Murphy_of_Missouri puts forth...

Posted Thursday
One has to wonder what would happen with the Civil Rights Movement.

It is all too easy to see a contemporary like Martin Luther King Junior reading about what happened after his death and perhaps coming to a different conclusion about how the Jim Crow South should be handled. Or if he doesn't, someone else might.

Feminism, what happens there? Do Second Generation and Third Generation Feminists take one look at 2021 hastag Victim Culture and have a great, "What the Fuck?" moment?

Gender identity. They'll have a hard enough time dealing with the acceptance of a homosexual male or female. How will they handle transgendered?

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Murphy_of_Missouri ducks in to say...

Posted Thursday
Apparently we do not have the ability to build paragraphs anymore at the Burger. Separate posts it is then. Suburban Sprawl, something Kansas City suffers from. Does it pick up pace as a result of the realization that things like school desegregation are going to become a fact of life? Do city's sprawl outwards even faster, leaving the central cores a wasteland of the impoverished? How do city planners and managers handle that issue?

insomniac puts forth...

Posted Thursday
Apparently you need to use < br > (without the spaces obviously.

See, I'm doing it now.

Murphy_of_Missouri mutters...

Posted Thursday
Oh, code and shit.
Like this?

Murphy_of_Missouri asserts...

Posted Thursday
Oh, code and shit.


Like this?

NBlob reckons...

Posted Friday
Yep.

White / capital flight was only possible after roadways & personal ownership of motor vehicles became commonplace.

I see a global scooter culture, like South East Asia, but more so.

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Murphy_of_Missouri has opinions thus...

Posted Thursday
In short, I see far less cultural and national unity in a post-Transition United States circa mid 1950s than was originally the case in our own timeline. It will also be far more difficult to paperover such issues with propaganda as was possible in the original timeline.

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Murphy_of_Missouri would have you know...

Posted Thursday
One final point, and relevant to the present day. Do Americans trust their government? In the original timeline there was a reasonable amount of trust for the Federal Government. After they learn about Nixon, McNamara, and a host of other issues, will that trust remain?

I think the leaders of the United States are going to have a very chaotic, hot mess on their hands stateside. Their military woes will be the least of their concerns.

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Mark R, Whittington would have you know...

Posted Thursday
I wonder if there might not be an earlier space race, but this time based on grabbing lunar and asteroid resources we now know exist but didn't back in the original timeline instead of science and national prestige.

insomniac mumbles...

Posted Thursday
"...an earlier space race..."


You mean like space lizards or something?

NBlob has opinions thus...

Posted Friday
Shhhhhh

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Dirk puts forth...

Posted Thursday
In daily life and in culture:

In music: maybe to early for a miniMoog, but some instruments will have hit the market: peddle steel guitar, the Les Paul would go into production in 1961, but that could be advanced, as would the ES-355TD (yep that's Lucille). Elvis started taking off in 55, but he could use a fitness regime. Does Gina de Marco still have room for extra curricular activities? I think it would be to early for either Booker T. Jones & the MG's, the Beatles or the Stones (middle teens). Cash was just out off the service in Germany, so he could be starting, as would Muddy Waters. The BeeGees started their first group in 55 (and at ages 9 they could reach the notes in Staying Alive quite nicely I think).

Books: Ernest Hemingway should stay out of bushplanes this time around, and have some psycho treatment. Jim Henson made his first Kermit the Frog: @Havoc fast track the Muppets?

On stuff: shame Turin is Russian now; it's the home of espresso machines. 55 was the year Macdonalds started, I would go for a chain of Starbucks or a kindred brand of coffee shop. And a more healthy drivethru

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HAVOCK21 swirls their brandy and claims...

Posted Thursday
FKN CAPS LOCK will come in FKN FASTER TOO! I reckon!

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Sparty asserts...

Posted Thursday
well given the events of Stalin's Hammer is suspect Space is well and truly raced -and sadly given conflict on earth i suspect will be at the back for resources -having said that someone will be trying to replicate the wormhole experiment (however misguided) and I'm assuming it does spatial as well as temporal displacement - it may have been a MacGuffin for the books but for the people of AoT its really and needs to be explored. I always fancied the idea of a boomer ending up in orbit- sub would make an excellent deep space craft once engines and a few things were added.

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Sparty mutters...

Posted Thursday
Hollywood wise would cue on Capture Von Braun! People want flesh and blood movie stars - so what if Clooney was a great draw uptime, he don't exist here- and alot of the movies / media the uptimers brought back would play like fantasy - "the wire" is no longer a drama about real life social decay but a fantest about a world that might never exist. Where as "The Rise and Rise of thin James" starring Humprey Bogart as the worlds biggest entrepreneur opposite Lana Turner would be far more real. (and I'd love to hear bogey narrate the slim jim like V.O. about BJ's ).

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HAVOCK21 would have you know...

Posted Thursday
hate to say it... but the PORN Industry will go FKN NUTS

insomniac has opinions thus...

Posted Friday
Sounds like you're doing it wrong

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Jevon Kasitch has opinions thus...

Posted Friday
On Human Sexuality: The up-timers bring a lot of things with them to the past the directly and indirectly impact this area.

The big tangibles are Birth Control, The massive porn collections that would have come back on the personal devices, and the medical solutions to many STD’s.

The big intangibles are The philosophies that women now hold about being in charge of their own sexuality and pleasure, the mindsets that result from exposure to the internets 24/7 hot and cold running porn, all the social inclusionary thinking that evolved regarding homosexuality, transgender, and so forth perspectives.

And there are multitudes of small tangibles and intangibles also.

All of these would have an effect on the past.

I’ll pull one example: The effect of the existence of the web on sexual development.

The internet solved one of the core issues that most humans feel about their sexuality “Am I the only person who feels this way?” Very early on fetish communities spawned and people who once grew up isolated and having to work out how they felt alone (taking years and decades sometimes) suddenly had a tribe of like minded folks to share and learn from. This ‘normalized’ a huge number of fetish (really paraphilia but the bastardized meaning of fetish is what everyone uses now) behaviors and allowed many people to just be more comfortable in their own likes. These stable communities in turn became the first stop for young teens just exploring their own starting sexualities, and finding there are others with feeling that match that came before and gaining a normalized perspective earlier and thus advancing their own sexual wellness by years. They start having GOOD sex lives sooner, and that in turn gives them more room to explore, and the liberalization of sexual outlooks builds. The porn archives brought back will be massive. Odds are just one person with an unusual fetish will have hundreds of media about it on a personal device will be common. These collections will form the center of dozens of sexual communities on the new internet of the 50’s.

The internet tends to destroy some sexual taboos: Let’s say a nude polaroid of a female classmate got loose in 1983. The trauma of it would be massive to the young lady. Life changing. It would be a BIG DEAL, and be the scandal of the school for months. Flash forward to now, and while a young woman might be embarrassed horridly if a nude was pictured on line, it also sinks into “There are a trillion other nudes on the web, who cares?” too. Heck, many young women post such images of themselves without a thought. The nudity taboo in America is being slow degraded by the web.

Just the fact that there is a boatload of porn that shows people enjoying themselves doing X, Y, and Z will lead people to ‘try’ that. When the Joy of Sex was published in the 70’s it introduced people to ideas they had never encountered, or thought were too taboo to ever discuss with a partner. And emboldened them to try. The future porn and other media will do the same.

The fact that birth control that is safe and effective and that drugs exist to deal with any 50’s STD cannot be underestimated as these two things were the foundation stones of the 60’s and 70’s sexual revolutions. Availability will be the key issue here, as laws restricting sales of contraceptives were (from todays perspective) backwards to an amazing degree in the US of the 50’s. But some company is gonna want that sweet birth control market.

The impact on the culture will be massive and very much a flash point. The huge majority of the population will quietly absorb the lessons and impact and become more liberal as they see how that line of thinking works for them surrounding their own sexuality. But cultural power nodes (The Church, Government institutions, so forth)will be threatened on the public levels as they will see how all this undercuts them in the future and will try to stop it now. Morality police will be recruiting big time. Slut Shaming in the new 50’s will make todays version look like kindergarten,and so forth. The war on sex will polarize into Us vs Them much faster, and be in of those core questions that people have to answer as to where they come down on. (Most will say ‘Us’ in public, but be a ‘Them’ in private)

Our sexual revolution was not the smoothest one, but it was somewhat orderly and managed to absorb each new thing as it came and move forward. Dumping the entire load on a culture at once males it… difficult. It’s not a sexual revolution but a sexual civil war.

Hef and Playboy will never happen. Playboy was a happy accident that grew out of Hef’s ability to exploit that first nude of Miss Monroe and mate his progressive outlook of lifestyle to it and grow with the changing (slowly) climate of America. The climate will be totally different, and the field will be crowded. Playboy was just one of dozens of mens magazines of it’s day. It won. But in the New 50’s How many of those others might snag a nude of a major female celebrity? With a lot of uptime tech loose, someone would use it to get such shots. And of course people being people would make their own for private use and they would get loose (see the ‘fappening’ from a few years back) (New 50’s hacking culture would be a weird and fun thing to see, but we digress) Playboy would face long odds. Though Hef might see a path.

This has gotten too long. But sexuality and culture are in my wheelhouse of knowledge. I can say much more.

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FormerlyKnownAsSimon would have you know...

Posted Friday
I prob can't add anything useful but it's bloody interesting reading. If i could put my hand up to push little markers around a table with a long stick i'll be happy.
i can't remember in the books (and haven't read the latest one - soz! Should refresh my memory and fix up the current situation) if recreational drug cartels around the world were mentioned. Drugs played a bit part in the sixties. All that stuff from its part in the revolution to how to make it (or its constituent parts) - including all the information about south america/afganistan etc would be there for the picking. Do the US try and crack down on it straight away, try and fix any mistakes or just make the same ones as before? Does someone just go straight into production knowing the greed for it? Does everyone just go into production! Due to the schism of uptimers/downtimers drugs would seem to be a desirable commodity - probably by everyone. Uptimers still depressed about dislocation and downtimers needing escape from current events

NBlob mumbles...

Posted Friday
JB mentioned at the arse end of FI that the OSS had reached out to Ho Chi Minh, if the west blundered into another was on drugs that'd be profoundly sad.

NBlob puts forth...

Posted Friday
But, politics is the art of the compromise. Is it possible that the up timers political & communications Fu would be insufficient to offset their relatively small number as a % of the voting public.

FormerlyKnownAsSimon is gonna tell you...

Posted Saturday
Gah. Right gonna have to do a refresh. I still think some enterprising dictator might take advantage and work on supply. Where there's money to be made . . .

damian swirls their brandy and claims...

Posted Tuesday
Two-party politics is the conviction that all issues deconstruct to a continuum and that a compromise where the debate is balanced will be reached through some sort of Aristotelian moderation. But sometimes the arsehats are just arsehats and no matter how carefully you deal with them, you will always end up with shit on your hands. Doesn't mean you don't have to, but it does mean it's not a pretty job. Laws and sausages I guess.

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NBlob would have you know...

Posted Friday
Love it JB, like the old days where we battered ideas around till the moved through silly, past counterintuitive into Hmmm.

damian ducks in to say...

Posted Friday
Surely we've learned how to be more efficient and go straight to Hmmm?

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Jay mutters...

Posted Friday
Wouldn't there be a run on keeping colonization of African nations a thing? You will need a lot of resources like rare earth metals, so the powers that be would want to hold on to territories like of, oh, say South African (hello diamonds).

It's a continent with major resources and little opposition... Maybee the proxy wars will be fought there instead of Korea/Vietnam/etc.

Dirk swirls their brandy and claims...

Posted Friday
Except for rubber, the Sovs have all the metals and minerals they need. The cia (via a front) even bought titanium from them in the sixties to make SR-71's.

No the Sov's always want access to a warm water port (ie one that doesn't freeze over in winter. Well with Crimea, south of France and northern Italy they have those. So targets would be Istanbul/Bosporus, Suez and Malta & Gibraltar.

On SR-71: would that be developed or are sats the preferred option?

John Petherick asserts...

Posted Monday
Satellites have predictable orbits and limited on-board fuel for maneuvering, so sub-orbital / high-altitude aircraft have advantages in being able to capture images of time-sensitive events. It's a niche (presumably) now filled by drones rather than manned aircraft.

I suspect that the SR-71 will be skipped unless some nation uses it as a development platform for single-stage-to-orbit.

More likely is a mixture of UpTime drone, battery and solar cell technology and good old-fashioned lighter-than-air technology. High-altitude blimps or rigid airships with solar cells on the upper surface, radar absorbing skin and internal maneuvering fans that can stay on station for weeks and transmit data using UpTime encryption. Probably not just visuals but also ELINT.

Murphy_of_Missouri has opinions thus...

Posted Yesterday
Given the knowledge brought back, one could skip a lot of needless, wasteful development to focus on something more fruitful. That would mean we wouldn't see the development of aircraft like the XB-70.

Drones might be an option, but they would still need satcoms in order to provide real time control, no matter how advanced the drone was.

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Guy is gonna tell you...

Posted Saturday
I think Joe makes a good point about Los Angeles, London and Sydney being islands of 21st Century tolerance (or vice, depending on your point of view). Even today there's a noticeable gap between liberal London and many other parts of the UK. It would likely to much greater in the 1950s following the arrival of the Uptimers, and greater still between a hip and happening LA and small town America, where the local preachers would no doubt be calling for a Crusade.

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Guy mutters...

Posted Saturday
I think Joe makes a good point about Los Angeles, London and Sydney being islands of 21st Century tolerance (or vice, depending on your point of view). Even today there's a noticeable gap between liberal London and many other parts of the UK. It would likely to much greater in the 1950s following the arrival of the Uptimers, and greater still between a hip and happening LA and small town America, where the local preachers would no doubt be calling for a Crusade.

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jl asserts...

Posted Sunday
I see a 1950's America where a lot of big shocks and little changes add up to a world of difference.

First, though, let me try out this paragraph code thing to see if it works.

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jl asserts...

Posted Sunday
Alright, have the paragraph code thing under control.

Yes, I certainly think there will be a large conservative backlash by people who are not exactly enamored with some of the cultural changes that the future brings (some fears would be reasonable, some not). However, some things (like effective contraception) will not be able to be withstood- with all the changes that will flow from that. Also, people in small town America are not necessarily the cultural cro-magnons some portray us to be, and people will roll with the changes with more equanimity than might otherwise be perceived as the case- especially with a yearly crop of conscripts processing into the newly integrated US military who will bring home the idea that minorities and women are not as inferior, etc. as some of their elders say.

I think for the average Joe that life will be an array of new consumer choices, medical advancements, and sometimes confusing juxtapositions of cultural and gender roles. Some things will happen slowly (like Alice maybe being a little less willing to accept the fact that her husband is lord and master of the house), other things will be fast (Little Louise saves up her allowance to buy a Soviet Workingman's Friend CD player and gets the most awesome recording of Back in Black).

What will be interesting is the acceleration of some trends (race relations and the tech society), and possibly the retardation of others (urban decay, reliance on the House of Saud)

As previously stated by others, the world will be awash in data pertaining to mineral resources- countries like the US, Holland, etc. will know they are sitting on oceans of hydrocarbons. At the same time, the technology to maximize the efficient use of said resources will be there, as well as solar, wind, etc. Who knows, maybe we would blaze a better path being forewarned and forearmed. People being people, though, it's much more likely that a path somewhere between wild incompetence, greed, and genius will be walked down.

That is, if the Soviets and their head maniac in chief doesn't destroy the world first. For that problem, we need to remember the most important fact- without security, there can be no liberty.

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jl would have you know...

Posted Sunday
And oh yes, very important, people know that wormhole manipulation and time travel are possible! Think about what the Soviets could do with that- with all of old Joe's ravings about "history reversing itself, the dialectic setting things right" etc, they surely have their best minds and resources working on the issue. Imagine a Soviet FTL ship, or Spetsnaz time travelers. Holy crap.

Turlogh Dubh O'Brien is gonna tell you...

Posted Tuesday
I am still of the opinion that Stalin's meddling causes the Disappearance :)

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jason mumbles...

Posted Sunday
I've been giving this too much thought (once again) and I am wondering about the psychological effect the time travellers and the glimpse into the future would have had. I can't help thinking about monstrous death cults emerging to avoid some of, what would be seen as, abominations happening on thr future. One look at the future of sport would probably set the KKK on a mission to destroy the planet.

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Stephen M. Stirling ducks in to say...

Posted Sunday
Keep in mind the parable about the frog -- the one that boils to death because it doesn't notice the gradual increase in the heat of the water.

People not only get a glimpse of the future, but they now know that -time can be changed-.

In other words, they know what's coming... but they also know there's no reason they shouldn't change the outcome if they don't want it.

And in 1942, there would be a lot of people besides Stalin who wouldn't want it.

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Murphy_of_Missouri mutters...

Posted Sunday
I would think, in order for Kolhammer and crew to get the future they'd prefer, they would have to use The Quiet Room and other assets to engineer that future. That would mean having what is essentially a military organization meddling in social engineering in the civilian world.


Does that mean that Kolhammer ends up funneling money, resources, and assets into civil rights organizations? And does he have The Quiet Room running smear ops and targeted hits on folks like George Wallace? I'd think things would get pretty bloody pretty fast.

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jason swirls their brandy and claims...

Posted Monday
Okay JB, I've been patient and played nice and I understand the need to produce quality work but...

I am leaving for New York on Monday and I have planned to work through Rome Cairo and Paris during the wonderfully long flight. You can see the bug in the plan I am sure.

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Turlogh Dubh O'Brien mutters...

Posted 19 hours ago
Would Kohlhammer and the Uptimers, having the knowledge of the US gov't doing studies and experiments without consent on soldiers and citizens, allow that? Yes, it would help fight the Sovs, but at what human cost?


I am talking specifically about stuff like Operation Top Hat, MKUltra, Operation Sea-Spray and the likes.

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Respond to 'All your cool shit are belong to Slim Jim now'

Update

Posted September 15 into Writing by John Birmingham

No, I'm not dead. Just busy.

In the last six weeks I've written just over 80,000 words. I intend to keep going at this rate until mid-December. By that time I will have finished Stalin's Hammer: Paris, A Girl in Time, and the new, full-length AOT novel which kicks off the world War 3.1 series. (Oh, and the Dave Hooper fanfic project).

I'm not sitting up until midnight with my underpants in my head to do this, but I am working consistently, continuously and at a pretty intense level.

At a minimum I drop 2000 words into Scrivener every day. Most days I shoot for two and a half or three thousand.

As always, come mid-afternoon I crash back to the surface of Planet Parenthood for a couple of hours of kid wrangling.

That's why you're not seeing many updates around here. I'm prioritsing the books and by the time I'm finished for the day... I am fucking finished for the day.

I have been following the discussion in the World War 3.1 thread, copying and pasting the highlights across to my research files. I've also had some very useful OOB stuff sent to me by Dirk and JL. I'm grateful for the help.

Also hugely helpful, the beta readers on Paris. I've been gradually taking in their edits and suggestions over the past fortnight, and will wrap that up and send the finished draft off to the pro-editor in the next couple of days. The cover art was finalised a long time ago, and the formatting won't take long, so it will be published within a month.

I will have another topic for 3.1 which I will put up later today. But right now, I have those KPIs to hit.

12 Responses to ‘Update’

Dave W would have you know...

Posted September 15
I thought it would be something like this.

I've not been much use in the Pepsi Challenge...what with knowing next to nothing about military strategy, materiel or history. My history major kind of focussed on the causes of wars 1 and 2, rather than the military consequences. It's been interesting but quite intense to follow the threads.

Look forward to the next update.

Lulu reckons...

Posted September 16
"what with knowing next to nothing about military strategy, materiel "

Yep, same here. My only contribution would be '(a) supply lines? have you thought about your supply lines? Oh, and (b) don't invade Russia during winter, because, well (a)'.

Dave W ducks in to say...

Posted September 16
Plus: Never get involved in a land war in Asia (tip o' the hat to the Princess Bride).

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Leftarc has opinions thus...

Posted September 15
Is that how you re calibrate the diesel emissions code in a Golf?

Dirk asserts...

Posted September 15
Naah that's easy :)

Well John bring it on!

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Halwes asserts...

Posted September 15
I just read your SMH article on the plebiscite. I was determined not to care about this issue until I had to but I think that time has come. The full enormity of how the debate will unfold has finally penetrated. As I listened to how the two sides would be funded I realised how this funding will be used by the homosexual bashers and I despaired. Most can handle it I reckon and will give as good as they get but what about the fragile and the young.? They are about to get a bashing that they will never forget. There is no way that there wont be serious collateral damage and lasting enmity. By the way, the line on the plebiscite carrying less legal weight than a fridge magnet poem was gold.

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jl is gonna tell you...

Posted September 16
A little bit of staff work on our part frees you up to do what's important- writing. This is entirely selfish because the more you write the more I get to read, and it sounds like you've got some good ideas brewing down there.

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Rob reckons...

Posted September 16
I love that gif so much.

JB send me an email about the cover image you wanted if you have the time. I have ...erm ,,,, more time that I know what to do with.

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Rhino reckons...

Posted September 16
You keep banging that keyboard. Me 'n H got this shit locked down tight.

I wanna get my mitts on that commie stomping opus you are working on ... So, if any a these mooks try to derail ya, well, that'd be bad.

All I'm sayin is, You don't get theses eatin' borscht and pettin Uncle Joe's pecker.

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DaveC mumbles...

Posted September 17
80 K words in a month and a half is pretty epic. Of course I'm drooling to read 3.1, but I'm also really looking forward to reading A Girl in Time. That premise has been bouncing around in my head and I can't wait to see where it takes them.

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Turlogh Dubh O'Brien mumbles...

Posted September 20
I am interested in A Girl in Time as well. I didn't submit a favorite time period for the story suggestion because I couldn't decide on one.

But for me the main show will be WW 3.1. I still hold on to my boyhood dream of getting Tuckerized into one of the novels.

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insomniac asserts...

Posted September 20
We need a new post. The current one should be labelled NSFW in an open plan office.

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Respond to 'Update'

Pepsi Challenge: World War 3.1

Posted August 30 into Books by John Birmingham

Thanks to everyone who’s been noodling around the beta of Paris. It’s shaping up nicely. I’ll leave it in there for another week or so and then flick it to Deonie for the blow torch treatment.

I had an email from Dirk de Jager when he’d finished his first read thru; a suggestion that a map would nice. Which it would. I’ll see what I can do about that. If anyone knows of any copyright free map generating magic sites on the interwebs, please let me know.

I’ll have to go read Final Impact again to remind myself of how all the chips fell in the end.

Two other suggestions from Dirk:

Build an order of battle for WW 3.1: what are the forces and what are they composed of, where are they and who's commanding them.

Compose a battleplan for the invasion: something like this would be a starter I think https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seven_Days_to_the_River_Rhine

These are two excellent suggestions I’m willing to throw to open discussion here.

I’ll have some more as I closer to starting work on the manuscript proper.

120 Responses to ‘Pepsi Challenge: World War 3.1 ’

Dirk has opinions thus...

Posted August 30
As godfather and main culpret of this let me kick off then:
Lets start with the West German Army of as they call it Das Heer der Bundeswehr

"... By March 1954 the Blank Office had finished plans for a new German army. Plans foresaw the formation of six infantry, four armoured, and two mechanised infantry divisions, as the German contribution to the defense of Western Europe in the framework of a European Defence Community." quote from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Army

As every good book needs colorful characters, let me propose this guy as one of the corps commanders: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyacinth_Graf_Strachwitz . Okay JB: It's a guy with kinda lot of letters in his name but his nickname was "Der Panzergraf - the tank count"

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jl mutters...

Posted August 30
Here's an interesting guy who could be written in as a German character: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joachim_Boosfeld. I'll give this some more thought later, gotta go to work.

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McKinneyTexas reckons...

Posted August 30
Need to know:

1. What year is the invasion?
2. What are the available forces, conventional and nuclear, to both sides?
3. What are the available tactical nuke forces, if any, to either or both sides.
4. How great is the West's edge in armor and air tech?

It's a fun challenge but there are a lot of moving parts.

Also, we need to know how the Ruskies were able to penetrate the alps with such apparent ease. Anyone familiar with norther Italy and the southwestern French border will know that it is not armor friendly country by any stretch. Any stretch at all.

Dirk is gonna tell you...

Posted August 31
@McKinney
1. 1955
2. that's what we are helping JB to find out. We could take the Original NATO order of battle and tweak it to fit in the adapted situation. Ie less Italy (north occupied) and France (ditto South East), integration if they are members of Switzerland, Sweden, Ireland, Spain and Israel etc. On a worldwide scale (if JB would be thinking that big, which is presume) we could start by using the current American commands (European/Pacific/Southern/Africa and Central) as starting blocks for treaty organisations and work our way down.

For exam. Pacific command is the US contribution to PATO, the PAcific Treaty Organisation where the forces of at least Aus, NZ, undivided Korea and South Japan are co-operating. You could add Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaya/Brunei and Singapore and Micronesia also to the mix.
3. I would keep it mostly conventional, nukes tend to make a mess ...
4. see comment on havoc's point.

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Murphy_of_Missouri has opinions thus...

Posted August 31
God, U.S. Army Doctrine was such a tangled mess during the 1950s and 1960s. Ike's thinking was to cut back on conventional forces, relying instead on the nuclear deterrent to dissuade the Soviets. This change led to the end of Regimental Combat Teams, replacing them with these weird battalion sized Battle Groups. Colonel David Hackworth wrote about those in his memoirs.

I think someone would have to stop all of that before it happened, since we reinvented RCTs with the Brigade Combat Teams of the last decade.

Thus, first and foremost, you'd need tanks. The Abrams is a battle proven design that would be limited only by the availability of turbine engines. Tanks like the Leopard II and the South Korean K-2 get around that with fairly powerful diesel tanks generating equivalent power.

So, toss the Abrams into the tool kit. It should be easy enough to build a rudimentary M-1A1 model given what the uptimers bring with them.

Go Bradley or not? The Bradley is a good IFV but it has proven to be too heavy for a lot of situations. It'd probably be better to go with something like a Stryker/ASLAV unit. I'd start building those in their infinite variations, that'll give Ike some of the savings he is looking for by creating a common family of vehicles.

We had AH-1 Cobras, UH-1 Hueys, and a rudimentary CH-47 for Final Impact. Upgrade those as well.

Thus a typical building block would probably consist of a Regimental or Brigade Combat Team. Since we're in Europe that needs to be Armor Heavy, two armor battalions for every one infantry battalion. Three brigades per armored or infantry division, slap in at least two artillery battalions (tube 155, towed or not, tracked or wheeled). A cavalry squadron on the ground, plus an aviation brigade. Throw in a Main Support Battalion, a Chemical Company, an MI battalion, an MP company, and a Signal Battalion.

How many divisions? Depends on what you want American Foreign and Military policy to reflect. Want to save money for domestic needs and rely on nukes? Let us say maybe two U.S. Army Divisions. There are plenty to pick from. Want to be more robust and not repeat the mistakes of the previous timeline? Maybe ten divisions in two Corps sized elements forming Third U.S. Army.

You'd need special assets. I'd ramp up the creation of a U.S. Army Ranger Regiment much sooner, plus moving forward with the creation of SOCOM. Then you could start pipelining those from the 82nd Airborne and 101st Airborne into those schools for more commandos/special operators.

I'd dump vertical envelopment doctrine and instead focus on heliborne troop movement doctrine instead.

As for the individual soldier himself? I have a feeling a lot of folks are going to study up on the M-16/M-4 and decide they don't want to go down that road. They may instead go for an updated M-14 with composite components replacing the wood stock. A rail system to mount all of the usual goodies on it would be a good way to go as well.

Body armor, helmet, smart googles of some type, radio comms pushed down to the individual level, and multicam style fatigues.

Those are a few suggestions for the U.S. Army.

DarrenBloomfield swirls their brandy and claims...

Posted August 31
This post is the sexiest thing I've read on the Internet this year...

More seriously, yes, its a great opportunity to unwind a lot of doctrinal/strategic/organisational decisions in light of bitter experience.

Fascinating for me will be to see how willing to learn theu are - think back to "Rome" and Olivier still screwing up with Hamlet despite knowing better. Trivial compared to what is at stake here, but a pointer to a very human condition?

I'm no military expert, but wouldn;t the biggest (non atomic) payoff come from smart ordnance?

In terms of force configuration, I think we've mused here at the Burger in other contexts that the single biggest thing modern forces (esp but not limited to US forces) have over historical ones is empowering leadership decision making in situ and trusting jonny on the spot, If that culture can be inculcated in Allied forces of the 50s, surely that will have a massive competitive advantage against a force still largely conscripts, and less than a generation removed from a battle plan relying on NKVD troops behind them with machine guns to 'encourage' moving forward.

Murphy_of_Missouri ducks in to say...

Posted August 31
That culture already exists in contemporary forces circa the 1940s. If anything the Uptimers are probably more prone to be German in their behavior on the battlefield than their 1940s counterparts.

Dirk would have you know...

Posted August 31
for an assault rifle a G3/FAL or AR10 would be better then a M14 I think. And it would balance the trade between the US and it allies. And would you go lower in calibre and go .223 wouldn't a hk416 clone work?

As would implementing the FN MAG as the standard machinegun. You will know it better in its M240 guise I think.

On tanks I must concur with Havoc: a gasturbine is hot as hell and has a drinking problem. So go for a 1200-1500hp diesel if you want a 60 ton tank. Upgrading the M-60 like the Israelis have done as Magach/Sabra could work also.

BCT is I think the way to go: Armoured, Mechanised, Light/Motorised/Mountain and Marine versions of those. Special Forces would be a no-brainer also I think.

Lav/Stryker in its original form Mowag Piranha would be also a good one. One chassis/powerpack with 16-20 versions of it I think ranging from simpel battlefield taxi;s to specialized versions. Building huge numbers keeps cost down and lowers training costs.

I would add some pieces of kit: a portable anti tank weapon, a small battlefield surveillance drone like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AeroVironment_Switchblade and the humble pickup truck in techincal mode for patrol and ambush operations.

jl is gonna tell you...

Posted August 31
The 240B is an excellent weapon, my only complaint with it is the weight (A PKM is better if you have to hump that bastard up the side of a mountain). It would work well in JB's universe. An upgraded M60 tank is a good pick as well. Strykers/LAVs make sense, too. For utility vehicles, why not go for the JLTV straight off? It's an excellent, battle tested design (the JLTV is a mini MAT-V, like the ones we used in Afghanistan) that should be well within the manufacturing capabilities of the 1950's. And SF, etc. uses pickup trucks, four-wheelers and dirt bikes all the time, so no reason to think they wouldn't use them in JB's world.

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Murphy_of_Missouri asserts...

Posted August 31
I put paragraphs into my above post but I guess they got whisked out.

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WarDog has opinions thus...

Posted August 31
Drool .. teasers like this are going to kill some of us John.

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jl would have you know...

Posted August 31
A good place to start would be seeing a map of JB's vision for the division of post-war Germany. Remember in Final Impact how the Reds were mostly held out of Germany by a concerted chemical warfare effort by the SS? How much of Germany does the Red Army hold? How big is the "dead zone" that was impacted by the weaponized anthrax, radiation, etc.?

jl has opinions thus...

Posted August 31
Yeah, re-read JB's comment and he is on top of the map issue. That's what happens when you work on someone's air conditioner in the hot sun all day, you miss stuff.

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FormerlyKnownAsSimon mutters...

Posted August 31
i can't remember if anything like this is included anywhere in the canon:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CrJtw0kXgAAhVy6.jpg
the Canadian representative signing on the wrong line making everyone subsequently sign below. Resulting in crossing out etc. Man, what a mess for such an important document. . .

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HAVOCK21 swirls their brandy and claims...

Posted August 31
Better clarify a few things. 3.1 are you talking EUROPE, and Centcom, Northcom and southcom ( ItalY) etc?

I need to check but where is NATO at this point ion time.

Also guys remember we are talking AoT WW3.1 NOT the normal time line.

As for the M1A1 its a piece of shit! thats a fkn log nightmare does not do SMOKE and has a poxy wading depth too. Drive a fkn gas turbine into water a see what happens. Its got a fkn IR heat bloom the size of fkn KNNSAS from the rear BTW. JET EXHAUSTS DO THAT!

Id be thinking maybe tech has allowed the M60 to be present, perhaps with a 120mm or 105mm, Rhinementanl unit??. ( me typing is shit but I am also trying to work) or perhaps they have integrated the Chiefton into current tech... MORE LATER!


MLRS....would they have adopted Strike Deep, second echelon attacks etc. I think ATGMs will be FKN RIFE! for the Allies! massive defensive capabilities and mobile. remember that supression tech will not be as advanced as Offensive tech for their type I think!...fkn could be wrong too!

Murphy_of_Missouri is gonna tell you...

Posted September 1
Oh, Havock is the one person who thinks the Abrams is crap even though it has a fairly solid combat record, sells to allies on a regular basis, and the crews here stateside love it.

One forgets that Americans are very unlikely to purchase anything made by a foreign manufacturer, no matter how great it is. Thus, no Leopard IIs for the U.S. Army.

The other thing to keep in mind is that even in John's modified time line, Europe still gets the shit kicked out of it. The U.S. has manufacturing capacity to beat the socks off of anyone outside of the Sovs. So whatever it is they produce will be what pretty much everyone else uses.

Finally, per the Abrams, easy enough to slap a diesel engine in. Heat signature not an issue.

Dirk has opinions thus...

Posted September 1
Fair enough, but may I point out that Leo2, was once on the US shoppinglist en sold to more countries then the M1? Economics and especially armstrading is more give and take: I buy your tank if you buy my machinegun, missile system, radar, disposible socks etc. And the US buys from abroad a lot and or builds it under licence. the 240b is the belgian MAG, made in the us, UH-72 Lakota is made by airbus, mortars and towed 155's are British etc ...

In jets a high-low mix would work I think, so airforce F-15 & 16 the Navy/marines F-14 and A-4 (and a shitload of subkillers?).

Murphy_of_Missouri asserts...

Posted September 1
Relatively recent change, Dirk.

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John Birmingham reckons...

Posted August 31
I'm perched in the back row of a school play. Not the best place to ponder these important questions.

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AKM. ducks in to say...

Posted August 31
Could always write in David Hackworth as a young up n coming officer...... he started his career stationed in Italy just after ww2

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HAVOCK21 swirls their brandy and claims...

Posted August 31
TLAMS with Cluster munitions and SKEET type Anti tank forged penetrator bomblets. Maybe from Arsenal type battery ships off the coast line. Nato or what ever its going to be called will not have its space to trade for time and REFORGER will not be fast enough. I see the UK as being the primary stocking base. t SOSUS and the GIUK GAP..SOv subs. Europe and Britan will need to be resup.

Orbat for Russia will be in the order of the following:

Western theatre: 70+ Divisions
20K Tanks or more
A/Craft 5K
Mortars / Arty 20K plus pieces

Strategic reserves: well thats gunna be BIG 20 plus Divisions

Think at least 20 Divisions
Nth west ( Sweden etc. 15 Div or more
Ship and surface fleet numbers...not so sure. I think the Sovs will go for Naval Aviation BIG TIME. Backfires and Blinders and look for early versions of the MIG 25 Foxbat and Fox Hound too. Maybe a low level job like the Fencer Su 24.

Expect that Scotland will be turned into a Fortress, same for Iceland too....is that still in the Allies hands. I have a feeling it was lost?

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Sparty ducks in to say...

Posted September 1
the thing is i suspect that a lot of aviation assets will look really "soviet" on both sides - ie big engines, clunky and lots of rough bolts (spent afternoon once walking round a Latvian aviation museum - hard to believe a MIG 25 Foxbat could actually go mach 3 with its rough edges) any how I degress. I'd be interested to see how the pacific war goes - Stalin could use it as a spoiler op to stretch the US. So much so that maybe they have to sortie the Clinton in whatever state she's in...
it will prob have a very early seventies feel to the war (which tends not to be very much "wargamed" )with what i'd call semi precision munitions.

Murphy_of_Missouri is gonna tell you...

Posted September 1
I don't see American Aviation following the Soviet route. I also don't think they'll repeat the mistake of the F-4 Phantom. If they take any lessons at all it will be to stick with agility over sheer power and speed.

Josh puts forth...

Posted September 1
The F-4s issues were mostly caused by a lack of emphasis in pilot training on dogfighting. If you give the Phantom it's Vulcan cannon, train pilots to use the excellent amount of power the jet has to fight vertically & therefore avoid turning fights were MiGs excelled (which is what happened towards the end of Vietnam) then the Soviet jets won't be able to handle it.

HAVOCK21 would have you know...

Posted September 1
This is interesting because you are running over several area and I think also missing some key points.

Google Randy Cunningham, hes an ACE from the Vietnam war and flew the F4. Like you state, they didnt train for ACM and gun fights. They did in the end learn to fight the F4 where it was best suited and without checking I think thats medium to low level. Sure the migs had great power to weight but a small delt wing, I think more suited to higher up..COULD BE WRONG.

Like the two person config as well, especially when you want something that got a low level capability.

Murphs onto it I think to a point ( thats my perspective really). I would have say the F4 for medium and all round work ( if thats what fits the development time line) maybe a F5 for top cover high altitude? and would gab the Varks F111's for low level. Remember also if you are talking about cross decking of sorts the F4 is Carrier capable, Nuke Capable, Bomber, F4G Wild Weasel, and CAP. Pretty good all round bird especially when they will already know what the design issues were etc and its analogue.

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Rhino asserts...

Posted September 1
Everyone is overlooking the obvious. I'm naturally assuming there will be a Sgt Rhino and his Banshee Commandos wreaking havoc.

John Birmingham asserts...

Posted September 2
Have you been hacking my Scrivener files again?

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Murphy_of_Missouri would have you know...

Posted September 1
Stalin might be well served by sitting down with his Admirals and coming up with a better Navy. It doesn't have to be as good as the U.S. Navy, just better than it was originally, with an aim toward cutting off the sea bridge between CONUS and Europe. If he times things right, before Europe fully recovers their economy, then he could move ahead with an invasion, depriving Europe of reinforcements from the US and resupply as well.

For that I'd invest in some good, quiet, reliable diesel submarines.

DarrenBloomfield mutters...

Posted September 1
Man, that just might work. Or at any rate, if nothing is likely to (and in the end I think our timeline 'proves' that democracy/capitalist-driven resource allocation ultimately decides the matter.) this might be it.

HAVOCK21 is gonna tell you...

Posted September 1
Just on that Murph, I thought that JO S might go the aviation route for a couple of reasons.

1

HAVOCK21 reckons...

Posted September 1
Just on that Murph, I thought that JO S might go the aviation route for a couple of reasons.

1

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Rhino puts forth...

Posted September 1
Think Inglorious Basterds ... but sexier.

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Josh reckons...

Posted September 1
I feel as though there is a bit of dilemma here - do nations go for tried & tested designs that did well in the original Cold War or push for hybrid systems that mix 1950s & 2020s tech.

It looks like other posters have covered plenty of areas well but (conveniently for me) haven't said much about possible NATO airpower. I personally think the following would feature in the AoT version of the Cold War:

F-4 Phantom - I feel as though the American "teen" series of fighters & comparable aircraft like the Tornado, Viggen, Mirage 2000 etc are too far in the future to really feature.
The next best thing to those has to be the F-4; it can be used as a fighter, interceptor, strike bomber & even to be used for suppression of hostile air defences. Although the Phantom initially struggled in Vietnam, this was mostly down to the lack of a cannon & very little pilot training that focused on dogfighting. If you fix those two issues then you've got an aircraft that will more than match most Soviet aircraft until they create a MiG-29, Su-27 or something else of that calibre (the F-15 was actually created to counter the perception of what the Americans thought the MiG-25 to be but it turned out that the Foxbat was an interceptor than a fighter).
If the US focused fully on developing an F-4 after the end of the Second World War then I certainly think they'd have them ready for the mid-50s. This would give NATO an aircraft that can be used both from land bases & carriers.

A-10 Thunderbolt - To stop Soviet armour, the "Warthog" is definitely my number one choice. Although it's a 1970s aircraft, it isn't what you'd call all that technically advanced. I reckon that the US could field some A-10s in the 50s although there may have to be some compromises; maybe the Avenger cannon isn't quite a powerful as its uptime counterpart.

F-5 Freedom Fighter/Tiger - I'm sure I remember reading something about the F-5 in the second AoT novel but nothing seemed to come of it. I feel like the F-5 would be a perfect fit for nations that can't afford aircraft like the F-4. It can be used in multiple roles, including as a trainer & may help to prevent more expensive NATO fighters from being overwhelmed by cheaper & more numerous Soviet jets.

Harrier Jump Jet - Due to the fact that the AoT version of the Warsaw Pact has a far greater reach into Western Europe, I believe that NATO airbases are certainly a prime target for the Soviets. The Harrier gives NATO the option to use roads as runways so that, even if NATO's airfields are taken out, NATO can still field jet aircraft. As the Falklands war showed, the Harrier is capable of dogfighting against aircraft that are supposedly superior to it. An earlier model of Harrier, such as the GR.1 or GR.3 should be obtainable, especially if the UK aerospace industry focuses on it. It would also provide the Royal Navy with a VTOL carrier aircraft.

Vulcan bomber - The Vulcan would definitely be obtainable during the 1950s & it could also have some other advanced tech installed that only later variants have. It could be used for both conventional & nuclear armed missions at either high or low level.
In applying a 21st Century to a 1950s problem, an experimental Vulcan that can carry air to air missiles could be used to intercept Soviet bombers over the North Sea (in the same way the American Next Generation Bomber could be used to take down Chinese aircraft over Taiwan in the not too distant future).

TSR.2/Avro Arrow hybrid - Perhaps the UK & Canada do a joint aircraft program to succeed where both nations failed in the original timeline. The outcome could be similar to that of the Tornado; two variants are created - a strike version which is developed for the RAF while the RCAF get the interceptor version. This would probably be at the cutting edge of 50s tech so there probably wouldn't be much time to outfit many squadrons before WW3 breaks out.

Mirage fighter - This could be a joint French, Italian and/or Spanish project. As both the French & Italians have had their nations divided, it's possible that neither of them have the ability to build an aircraft that can match the Soviet jets & those of other NATO nations, without cooperating with each other.


What private companies do in the 50s could have a big impact too: it's possible that enterprises like Slim Jim's try to combine 21st Century aerodynamics with 1950/60s technology only to find it usually ends up crashing. So, for example, you could have aircraft that may look similar to an F-22 or F-35 but just don't have the fly by wire controls & other modern systems to ensure they fly.

Many aircraft you've already entered into the AoT series would be important too: B-52s, A-4 Skyhawks & perhaps even some upgraded F-86s in the hands of poorer nations or in the American National Guard squadrons.

As well as aircraft, NATO should ensure they have a game changing air to air missile. They need AIM-7 Sparrows that are more reliable than their counterparts were over Vietnam in order to counter the superior Soviet numbers. An all aspect model of the AIM-9 Sidewinder (so something like the AIM-9L) would massively help the NATO air forces in WW3.

These are some of my ideas; feel free to critique them & hopefully they're somewhat useful (and hopefully the paragraphs don't disappear).

Murphy_of_Missouri reckons...

Posted September 2
Harriers are pretty damned fickle, even today. I'm not sure I'd risk that route until I was sure of the technology.

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DarrenBloomfield would have you know...

Posted September 1
In today's "Next Draft" I saw this - this story needs these! (sorry buzzfeed link didn't come over, copied below):

"A very, very small quadcopter, one inch in diameter can carry a one- or two-gram shaped charge. You can order them from a drone manufacturer in China. You can program the code to say: "Here are thousands of photographs of the kinds of things I want to target." A one-gram shaped charge can punch a hole in nine millimeters of steel, so presumably you can also punch a hole in someone's head." It turns out we don't need many new technological advances to make small, weaponized, autonomous drones a widespread reality. From Buzzfeed: Can a small group of optimists stop the proliferation of killer robots and, just maybe, save humanity from itself?


https://www.buzzfeed.com/sarahatopol/how-to-save-mankind-from-the-new-breed-of-killer-robots?utm_source=nextdraft&utm_medium=email&utm_term=.aiz1WNroQm#.purjJnPz5X

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HAVOCK21 would have you know...

Posted September 1
Murph, I though that Stalin might go the poath of Naval Air power for a couple of reasons, more so than building vast fleets.

1 The USN at the end of WW2- WAS A FKN BEAST. the number of units and carries especially was vast. I think that the Soviets trying to take on the US Fleets! and all else is a bit of a non starter, they might form some battle groups I guess and try, but I would focus on the backfire. Its more deploy able, greater reach and cheaper. If you tripled the number of Backfire regiments and remember they have greater access to shipping routes this time aroudn, the number of locations that you could strike at a surface fleet has more than trippled and that goes for convpoys too.

Put air to air missiles on back fires and REFORGER is gunna get one in the Keeeester.

The other item which the backfires will do, is deplete the flet of AMs, this being a result of Multi regiment atttack of the whol transition across the water. The ships can RAS for sure, but even RAS ships run out. If you could sustain the attacks...then you might catch the convoys with their pants down.

jl reckons...

Posted September 1
Defend Iceland. Clancy made that point with "Red Storm Rising". I suggest a regiment of the US 6th Infantry Division with an MEU on standby, an entire fighter wing and suitable naval assets.

DarrenBloomfield mutters...

Posted September 1
Speaking of Clancy (and it's hard not to, in this context) remember that other great line from, I think, Red Storm Rising - the allusion to two Soviet officers strolling through recently occupied Paris, one says to the other "oh, by the way, who won the air war?"

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Turlogh Dubh O'Brien is gonna tell you...

Posted September 2
The US counted on "stay-behind" agents in Alaska in case the Soviets decided to re-create the Great Bering Strait Walkathon of 12,000 BC.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/early-cold-war-years-us-prepped-possible-invasion-alaska/

Obviously Operation Gladio also comes to mind - it wasn't just based in Italy but in a bunch of NATO countries.

And this time, will the invasion of Europe go through the soft underbelly of the Balkans or will it be through Rome?

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Rhino is gonna tell you...

Posted September 2

Didn't anyone hear me say, "Like Inglorious Basterds. But sexier?"



What the hell has happened to you people?

insomniac ducks in to say...

Posted September 2
It's just that that combination is impossible for us mere mortals to imagine. It would blow our tiny minds.

Murphy_of_Missouri mutters...

Posted September 2
Rhino, I apologize.

I was reading up on the Enlightenment.

Rhino puts forth...

Posted September 8
Same thing in my mind.

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spiral mutters...

Posted September 3
hey guys, just thought i'd jump in the conversation:
i have a feeling that NATO should a MASSIVE advantage over the Sovs in the air, given the fact that the US kept a few missiles and aircrafts in Area 51 during the war for reverse engeneering purposes:
Harms are there; Mavericks and hellfires, next generation Fox 3's and Fox 2's (Amraam and Sidewinders); LGBs, scramjet hypersonic missiles, INS driven bombs... the list goes on and on, at least one weapon from every kind that is loaded on an aircraft carrier HAS to have been saved for this; so they will/should definetly have an advantage in the air compared to the Russians.

the F4 was a good fighter bomber, but had major problems in the way it was used, as said above: no cannons, faulty AIM 7 SPARROWS that reaaaally took a long time for ignition (2 seconds press on the trigger and 1.5 second to ignite after drop off: long time when in combat) the way it was used was Boom and Zoom, it's turn radius sucked and i do mean sucked hard. AIM 9's were already introduced by the end of the war (in the book), so that could be something they greatly improve upon (they would have AIM 9 X's remaining from the war brought back from 2021, so they would dodge the entire failure that were the AIM9's in they're early versions.)

it's ability to carry massive amount of payload though... that was a massive plus for it, even it lost agility; as the saying goes: The Phantom is a living proof that with enough power, even a brick can fly. (18 Mk 82/GBU 12s or CBUs to the face is nothing to laugh at)

though for the same result and better speed i might go for the F 111 in it's stead, packs a wallup and allows for deep strike capabilities.

to be honest though, given the fact that by the end of the war they have F5's in dev already, i'd go for the F16 as soon as i could if i were them multi role and agile af, the thing is just that amazing. A10 is a no brainer in Europe, it was litterally thought for THAT scenario (just didn't expect it to survive long though i think estimates were around 15 minutes survivability over the battlefield ).

apaches could pop their heads, as they already had Cobras and it was a natural successor to it IRL, i'd imagine by the end of the war that it would/should definetly show it's head in this AOB

though the amount of sexy sexy things that could pop up (oh TOMMY KITTY how i love thee xD) on both sides (Dat FLANKER though... love the SU 27!!! lets not forget the bomb chariot that is SU25....) i'm going to be in heaveeeen when i'm going to read this book!!! (not even looking at a preview, i want my surprise to be total reading this ;) ) where the F22/F35 could come in i'm not sure that's realistic at least not in they're "true" form; between the composite materials necessary; the special paint and other things... i don't know... might be going too far there.

the list here is the things i can see being there and the ones i don't think could be:

AWACS E3s, and E2s: yes
JSTAR (airborne ground traking plane): maybe

Harriers: yes
F14s: very likely
F15s: yes
F16s: yes if the US went straight for that plane from the end of the war.
F18s: maybe but very early version
F22: no (requires fly by wire and computer to be able be handled and not be a death trap for the pilots)
F35s: same as above

F117s "cheap" version: maybe
B1s: possible to very likely as it was thought IRL as the successor to the B52 and you already have those.
F111s (as an australian yourself, i don't think i need to introduce that one to you: remember those awesome dump&burns during national day? that's the one): yes
Intruder: yes
Prowler (EW/refueling plane for the Navy): yes
B2: probable, not likely (too modern i think)

it actually depends what type of OOB you want: highly specialized or multi role. in the Cold War Era Nato for highly specialized aircrafts:

for instance, the Navy had:
F14s for long range fleet defense with F18s covering the dog-fighting range/escort duties, Intruders for deep strike missions and SAM suppression (SEAD/DEAD missions), prowlers were Intruders repurposed primarily for Electronic warfare operations and secondarily to perform SEAD strikes. now the US only has the Superhornet for Fleet defense, deep strikes, SEAD/DEAD strikes, refueling and even a replacement for the Prowler which is called the Growler (still experimental though). it also has a variant in testing to replace the E2 (don't know if it's operational though) etc etc... the new navy CAN perform all missions, just not in the same way as it used to (jack of all trades, master of none?)

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Murphy_of_Missouri has opinions thus...

Posted September 4
I really wouldn't go with the F-4. If you have the tech at hand, I'd move up to an F-15. I suspect F-16 type fighters are going to have to wait for advanced computer tech to come along.

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Dirk puts forth...

Posted September 4
Ok let's make the mix:

Airforce:
Heavy Bomber:
B-52 - evolution of the wartime model, with wet wing, cruise missile tech and crude smart weapons. Let's call it the B-52D.
operators: USAF, RAF

Strike aircraft:
TSR2
Operators: USAF (as B-54 Cyclone), RAF (as Cyclone GSR1), France (B-54 Cyclone), Australia (Cyclone mark 1), Canada (CB-54 Cyclone)
* The B-54 was a still born 3rd generation update of the B-29.

Fighter
F-15A/B Eagle (USAF, RAF - Eagle F1, France, Luftwaffe, RNLAF, RBAF, Spanish Airforce, Turkish Airforce, Swiss Airforce, Swedish Airforce, Free Italian Airforce, Israeli Airforce).

Fighter Bomber:
F-5C/D Tiger: either the 2nd generation F-5 or something akin to the F-20 Tigershark (single engined etc.) (USAF, RAF - Tiger F1, France, Luftwaffe, RNLAF, RBAF, Spanish Airforce, Turkish Airforce, Swiss Airforce, Swedish Airforce, Free Italian Airforce, Israeli Airforce, RDAF, RNoAF, Austrian Airforce).

CAS:
A-10 Warthog: (USAF, RAF - Warthog G1, France, Luftwaffe, RNLAF, RBAF, Spanish Airforce, Turkish Airforce, Swedish Airforce, Free Italian Airforce, Israeli Airforce, RNoAF).

Dirk swirls their brandy and claims...

Posted September 4
I forgot to give Oz fighters: so give them the Eagle/Tiger mix too, and add a wing of Warthogs :)

jl would have you know...

Posted September 4
Early generation 15's actually had very rudimentary electronics, and they were certainly not fly-by-wire. Given a hand by the uptimers, there is no reason they could not be in JB's universe in limited numbers. You can skip the F-4 and the "Century Series" altogether.

Dirk mutters...

Posted September 4
Well the F-104 was a source of a scandal in the 60's. Lockheed bribed Prince Berhard and a couple of german politicians to buy them, So JB, I think you can do something with that :). But I agree skip the Century-series and the low numbered navy jets.

Am putting up an order of battle at the moment for navel strength and land strength: I'l email a Google Drive link to you as soon if I got it ready.

spiral swirls their brandy and claims...

Posted September 5
@Dirk:

the B54 looks redendent with the B52, which we already have at the end of the war, so i would replace it with a B1 Lancer and the TSR2 with the Tornado

Dirk mumbles...

Posted September 5
@spiral: Why B-52 and B-54/TSR2? First the B-52 is already in production and is more easily modified then a B-1. Boeing is tooled up for building them so it's cheaper to keep producing them. Secondly B-1 and Tornado have swing wings, which will be a challenge to get right. Thirdly the TSR-2 has a bombbay (stealth :) ) and has greater unrefueled range than Tornado. On Dassault: If I remember correctly he was Jewish and spend time in a camp in the war, so he could be picked up by NKVD for example. And yes France wants it own planes: that's why they ordered about a 1.000 or so from the US in 1938 :)

Murphy_of_Missouri mutters...

Posted September 5
The B-52 is a proven design, and a great bomb truck with excellent loiter time. I'd stick with it.

spiral ducks in to say...

Posted September 5
@Dirk: nonono; the B52 is already there at the end of the war, so yes of course keep it, but the B54 was an replacement for the B29 which was more or less the let's call it "younger" version of the B52, which we don't need here since we have better thus the redundancy, the B1 Lancer would be a challenge if they didn't have tech heads from the 21st century, but they do, and if the Sovs can make "cheap" Tu 22 Backfires (i believe that it's what the Sovs use to nuke germany and Japan... right?) which has swept wings by the end of the war, there is no reason the US couldn't have swept wings after the war.

the TSR 2 has bomb bay doors, but it was originally passed for and the Tornado and it's variants were born from the competition that UK launched. the design and shape of the Tornado is almost a plane that Dassault was supposed to make with the Brits: the AFVG , so not that hard to make. might be better to gor F111 instead of the B1 or the tornado, but the Tornado has the advantage of being maneuverable, fast and can go in a lot more variety of missions.

damm that's another plane we just might not see in the book: the Tornado.

and... COCO Channel???!!! REALLY???!!! i lost it right there!!! xD
well i'll top your cheap cars, with Wine, Croissants, Jean Paul Sartre, and THE FUCKING CROCK EN BOUCHE!!! xD ( if you got that reference, kuddos, if you didn't just look up John Oliver after Paris 11/13... god that was awesome to watch).

Dirk reckons...

Posted September 6
Yes the original B-54 was a enhanced B-29. But I would be calling TSR2 in USAF colours the B-54 ie the Cyclone.
TSR2 and Avro Arrow were killed in our timeline by US pressure, not because they were shit planes.

on Sartre: reread the original JB books: if I remember he was killed in those, and spurred a terrorist movement.

Hereby the John Oliver piece: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=glxh9ZgP7kc

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spiral would have you know...

Posted September 5

though during the cold war before the Etendards IVM (Marine version) in 61, we had the US Crusaders in the Navy, for our Air Force, France did have its own planes. *French Pride :D*

you could also try some fun things, for instance, Dassault could be on the wrong side of the border at the end of the war and gets forced to work for the Sovs on a few planes that he would have made for France: Mirage F1, 2000 N and C;the Jaguar, Etendars and Super Etendards, the Rafale could be in the works too. there is no reason France would not have it's own air force other than him being either dead or on the wrong side.


to be honest if Dassault is on the other side of the border or dead, France would turn to US or Britain, but damm that just hurt my pride :D

all those beautiful planes not ever existing... that's just sad...very sad.

for NATO side, let's not forget the TORNADO GR1 (at least) too.

i'm going to eat a baguette and drink some wine pondering weather they will ever be in this book...

Dirk mutters...

Posted September 5
@Spiral But you raise a good point though: What would life be in Europe in these 50's: maybee it's something for a new thread where we can park essays seen in the point of view of people that are there.

French Aviation will be impacted if Toulouse is in the occupied zone. And if De Gaulle imposes mart ial law to quench the national diseases of strikes in France. So I fear for Mirage trois, but maybee Slim Jim has scouped up Marcel Dassault and have him designing business jets. Only JB knows :D

But not all is lost for France: Coco Chanel could be designing multi cam NATO uniforms, now the Italian fashion industry makes Mao suits. Renault and Citroen can make cheap cars, not mollested by Fiat. And the Dutch will still be coming in summer, happily towing our Caravans along over the Route Nationale :D

jl swirls their brandy and claims...

Posted September 5
My mother-in-law spent the mid-fifties trying to get through nursing school in Den Haag, she would vacation in Switzerland with a family she lived with after the war (not a lot of food in Holland in 1945). My father-in-law's family laid up huge stocks of supplies in the fifties "want er komt vast weer oorlog (another war will come for sure)." They were from Arnhem, had spent time as refugees, so they knew what they were talking about. In JB's world, those supplies would have been used. In our world, my mother-in-law is still trying to get rid of the stuff. Ha ha, our house is full of 60 year old Dutch sheets, pillowcases, etc all neatly embroidered "Ten Broeke".

jl reckons...

Posted September 5
Dirk, fascinating angle to look at life through the eyes of some civilians there. Lord knows I've heard enough stories of what life was like during WW2, always liked to listen to the older people talk, and I'm glad I did, because now most of them are gone.

Dirk puts forth...

Posted September 6
@jl well I'm dutch. So I know the stories. My grandma also was a prepper avant la lettre. She died in 2000, my mum had washingpowder for the next 5 years :)
For the upcoming tv market of slim jim, there is i think a prepper show in the discovery archives I think he could pre boot :D

jl mutters...

Posted September 6
Yeah, I figured you were Dutch. I must be one of the only Yanks who have read the whole De Jong series (Het Koninkrijk Der Nederlanden...) about WW2, good books. A prepper show would be a huge hit in the fifties- here in the States a lot of people built fallout shelters back then. Somewhere here in the house I have an old Civil Defense pamphlet describing how to DIY a fallout bunker.

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Aaron mutters...

Posted September 5
We shouldn't assume allies have an unlimited budget to try every possible upgrade on the menu. I Think there would be planes and tanks that would be inspired by future versions but import other features or perhaps a scaled down version of.

jl asserts...

Posted September 5
Massive resources were squandered in the 50's and 60's chasing down concepts that didn't pan out- ex. B-58, B-36, Century Series fighters, etc. The 'temps have the advantage of perfect foresight in this respect. They can choose proven, achievable platforms and start rolling them out like sausages. Also, they can see the mistakes that were made strategically in the original timeframe and avoid them- ex. allowing the Army to atrophy post WW2, neglecting the Guard and Reserves, etc. One change I would make re: the Army is an enhancement of the system of conscription. In the original timeline, soldiers were generally drafted for two years and were subject to recall for another six in the "Selected Reserves"- which meant that the skills they had learned on active duty were soon forgotten. Here's the change I would make- soldiers spend two years on active duty, and then serve the remainder of their enlistments in a Guard or Reserve unit where their skill sets can be maintained. This change helps the Army as a whole- the active duty formations keep their edge, and the Guard and Reserve units are staffed by a constant influx of experienced soldiers.

jl would have you know...

Posted September 5
Aaron raises a great point with cost-effectiveness, which segues into my point about maintaining the Guard and Reserves. I envision a 1/3 to 2/3 balance between Active Duty and part-timers (much cheaper to maintain). A lesson the 'temps can learn from future history is that the Reserves are not a place to go dumping unwanted men and materials, because the Army will need its Reserve forces in a national emergency. I propose that it makes sense that the Guard and Reserves are armed to the same standard as Regular forces- just as it is done today. This eases logistics and training and acts as a potent force multiplier. With a mobilization order, the trained and well-equipped part-timers become a plug-and-play asset at a small fraction of the cost of Regular formations.

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HAVOCK21 mumbles...

Posted September 5
I agree with Murph ref the B52, its really how you would employ it. Its simply not going to survive in a high threat environment without MASSIVE support. But in a lower threat region or as I love them for, launching FKN LOADS of HARPOONS or ALCMS then hell yes. I think given the tech, you would see the US use the F111 in perhaps its final ardvark config, although if they are smart it would be the final Aus config. Much better unit. Plus they have the EW versions for radar suppression. I think that Jamming will be in advance of freq hopping gear, that take processing power, jamming not so much. I can see Europe and the rest opting for the Tornado. Its Gr, ADV ( F) series for interceptor and does all.

You could really start to narrow it down.

EUROPE:
F15's (some) but mainly Tornados in F3 air interceptor role. GR for ground attack.
AH series choppers or Lynx either or. The Cobra ( super) versiuon might well be a better option all round and cheaper too.

Forward basing..hmm, not so sure. I would think that SOME interceptors would be forward in EU / France. But given transit times I'd be looking to UK.

Get the feeling SAM's will be like fkn fleis on a dead carcas, so low level its gunna be for strike. You know the KRAUTs will opt for the Tornado too. Plus it can double up for Maritime strike as well


Really not sure anbout the F15 for ground attack unless the timeline allows for the E Model, but hey, you would make do.

US:
F15 as the doominate Fighter for Air intercept and some ground attack dsuties perhaps.

Close Air: A10 for sure
Strike and nuke strike its the FB 111 ( SAC) and F11 Ardvark, plus the EW Raven unit. Talk with the skips about the best version, we operated them longer and modded them more.

LAND:
Well tats a fkn complete shit fight I guess. You know they will want the M1, not sure if the tech will be there. if it is then thats what will be built, remeber also the Aussies had a modified versiuon of it too in AoT so they can reverse engineer it. IF..IF they can convince the EU to go for it, then mass the one unit type only. MAKES fkn Sense. If not then its gunna be a slug fest between a modded leo 2 and Challenger 2. I like the latter a bit more.

Murph mentioned the Bradley, but noted its heavy. again its a preference thing. I like the new gear out thats 30MM, not 25mm but thats just up gunning. The bonus of the Brad is the TOW launcher which i like. But not sold on the rest.

The B52 will excel at Maritime strike and stand off launches, thats a kicker.

Naval. And here is the big question, can you set up an F15, say an e version of sorts to take a cat shot and carrier landing, if so, the BAM, its a bonus. If not we have to have another airframe and not a carrier.

jl swirls their brandy and claims...

Posted September 5
Look up F-15N. It's doable, but inter service rivalries are inevitable. Also, F-15E's are nuclear capable.

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Aaron mutters...

Posted September 6
I think there is an opportunity for plot in that the allies face a dilemma of too many options, budget and political pressures et al. The soviets although not as advanced have always been ruthlessly practical so might drive for more doable and less upper edge. It worked in ww2 re armour forces and I remember himmler in woc2 ruminating on why the allies were arguing over producing weapons when certain choices seemed seemed obvious .

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HAVOCK21 asserts...

Posted September 6
jesus JB. Lota data out there.

spring of 1944 Russia had in excess of 460 Divisions at a nominal strength of 5K per division.

Given the LARGER establishment in the AoT series, larger ground gained, it ould be well north of 500 Divisions but at more like 700K per Div within 3 years of WW2 end I would think.

Disposition...who knos at this point. Need to work that some. Composition, they would have moved to the Cold war combination as a minimum. But think about this. Given they had Gaurds, Rifle and Tank ( shock armies). What would they be like as a combined arms Army. But down to battalion level- Batle Groups, more like the German model. That ould prove interesting to Defend against.

it wouldgive the SOv defense in depth, multi layered. Not sure if they could pul it off, but I think so.

I go up against NATO, Ive got organic arty, ATGM's RPGS, Inf, APC, IFV's MBT's tied in together. I guess Frontal aviation is sep to this, but with more CAS available for the Unit commander, say down to Battalion level.

Thinking about Italy some, I see Airborne units and massive air support for that op from the Sov perspective. Fighting UP the peninsula wasa bitch for the Allies oroginally and it lends itself to Defense. Same I guess for a downward thrutst. Thus Airborne drops, massive though, and a mech focus?. not sold on that, certainly they would have looked at the amphib ops and how they went.

Stage one might be massive strikes by A/C against Med assets to enable amphib operations, follow up Airborne drops. I would use Airborn drops even as a throw away assset to tie down Allies troops/ block them, to allow consolidation.

jl reckons...

Posted September 7
In Italy I would use the 10th Mountain (US) and the 86th Mountain IBCT to tie the Russians into knots. Of course, the Sovs know that Italy is a maneuver nightmare, so it will probably be a secondary theater.

HAVOCK21 reckons...

Posted September 7
Agree. Though I am thinking they might try and cross the med, hit CAIRO, not make the same mistake as Adolf with Logistics. I really to to get up a map of what the Soviets gained at the end.

Turlogh Dubh O'Brien ducks in to say...

Posted September 8
Totally, close off the Med. They have Greece. They gotta cut off Crete and Cyprus, maybe with some help from the Arab countries. Then roll across North Africa in the reverse.

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DarrenBloomfield mutters...

Posted September 6
For all his weird personal political beliefs, Andrew Roberts' The Storm of War: a new history of the second world war is a pretty well researched critique of the the political failings of the dictatorships versus the democracies, If his thesis can extend to JBs world, 'our way' is better set out to win over Uncle Joe's

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Dirk is gonna tell you...

Posted September 6
Workhorces: the C-130 Hercules, the S-2 Tracker/CS-2 Trader/ES-2 Tracer/KS-2 Tanker would be no brainers too I think. Fitting them with the same T55 powerpacks (4 in C-130, 2 in S-2) could also power newer versions of the CH-47, and be used als ACU's for for ex. electricity and to power electronics aboard ships and aircraft.

combining the M-4 Sherman chassis with the M-2 or M-114 155mm howitzer would make a good self propelled gun, without hurting the bottom line. The surplus hulls and turrets could be used in fixed defenses on choke point in for example the Swiss and Austrian alps, on the Danish, Swedish, Dutch and Norwegian coasts and at choke points. You could do the same with surplus Panthers and Tigers.

Trucks: the M-35 and the Deuce and a half with a diesel engine would fit. You can build them up as DUKW (Duck) also.
Jeeps would be around plenty too, as would "nato green" versions of for ex the 2CV, the Renault 4 and the Beetle.

Pick a moment too for the humble mine. You want to have some modern types for killing tanks. You can do dirty tricks with them. for starters a mine (for ex the Barmine) that send a single when it's been traversed, and blows up after the second or third vehicle. Claymores and trip wire or other wise activated anti tank grenades (and rpg/m-72 or alike with a trip wire for ex.) And this baby https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M86_Pursuit_Deterrent_Munition



jl swirls their brandy and claims...

Posted September 6
The allies need strategic airlift, too. The C-5 would be handy. Also, it would be good if there were lots of pre-positioned supplies in depots throughout Belgium, France and Holland. Early in my career, I visited such a place in Germany- Row upon row of M-60 tanks, humvees, etc. as far as the eye could see. Agree on mines, C-130's, jeeps, they have all kinds of uses. Disagree on re-use of WW2 armor, except as raw material for a steel mill. Too many logistics problems. Start with a basic design (M-60 chassis) and re-equip from there. You've seen pictures of US arms assembly lines in WW2 or the fifties? They were capable of astonishing production. I read once that a shipyard in California built an entire Liberty ship in a day- I think that reference was in a book called "A Call to Arms" by Maury Klein. And speaking of Liberty ships- they should be put to use as floating forward LOGPAC (logistics package) vessels, filled to the brim with combat equipment and placed forward world-wide (which also happens to be modern practice). For further options, look up the Besson class logistics support vessels.

Dirk would have you know...

Posted September 6
I'll do you one better: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victory_ship and make them container ready, you wanna get the empty fast, en ship the good fast to the line (so add also semi trailers, trains and tracks etc to the mix). A ship in port is a sitting duck.

Well the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Frank_S._Besson-class_logistics_support_vessel reminds me of the russian Ropucha class, but will come in handy.

Yep those tankparks https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/POMCUS I know them, they are huge indeed.
You will need a fleet of airliners to ship personnel over so Civil Reserve Air Fleet has to be established also. Maybe even Nato wide. Ship in troops, ship out refugees.

C-5 would be good, but why not use early 747's from the CRAF also?

jl swirls their brandy and claims...

Posted September 7
Forgot to mention the CRAF- they are an essential piece of the puzzle, but can only be effective if some level of air superiority is maintained/achieved.

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Dirk reckons...

Posted September 6
@havoc: Arsenals ships are fine and good, but why not go flexibel: http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/why-boeings-design-for-a-747-full-of-cruise-missiles-ma-1605150371 You can use this baby also is a long range hauler.

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Dirk swirls their brandy and claims...

Posted September 6
and a nice mix between Tomahawk and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ADM-160_MALD would make for nasty surprise too ...

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Murphy_of_Missouri asserts...

Posted September 7
Might not be a bad idea to ponder what toys the Sovs are bringing.

Numbers do provide strength however there is the weakness inherent in the need to upgrade the equipment for those numbers. That costs money and even the Sovs still have to spend something for what they get. The present day Russian Army has learned that the very hard way.

jl ducks in to say...

Posted September 7
I would think an absolute boatload of T-55s or T-72s, BMPs, BTRs, 2S1's, masses of arty, MiG 21's, Hinds, etc in a combined arms assault on steroids. They have a breakthrough (5th Army, approx. nine divisions of the Army's best troops, are gone), now they will be looking to bypass and flank what's left on their assault towards Rotterdam, Brussels and Paris. They won't get bogged down in fights for cities, and they will sprinkle airborne assaults around like raisins in my aunt's cookies to fix defenders. Plus, additional strikes with their space borne weapons are a possibility, so massing troops to hit their flanks is going to be problematic. In short, the defenders are in hell. If air superiority is lost and REFORGER fails, the US better start thinking hard about the Statue of Liberty being replaced by Smilin' Joe in New Worker's City.

jl mutters...

Posted September 7
And don't forget Asia. If I were the Russians, I would pour troops across the DMZ in S. Japan to further complicate the Allies war efforts, maybe send some troops to Alaska, too. Weeks before the outbreak of hostilities I'd have the Pacific and Atlantic crawling with subs, to include a few boomers, and I would do something about the Panama Canal as well. Joe Stalin has the advantage here, he is inside of the allies decision loop (at least at first), and God knows the NKVD will have almost all of the Allies war plans on his desk. I really don't know how you keep this from going nuclear in a big way, short of getting lucky and killing Joe Stalin and his cabal. Of course, if Joe is smart, he's hanging out somewhere in Siberia when this shit-storm kicks off, and he has a body double hanging out at the Kremlin.

Murphy_of_Missouri asserts...

Posted September 7
I honestly do not see the Soviets achieving air superiority. Would it be a nasty, contested fight? Sure. But clearing the skies of the U.S. Air Force, filled with their own combat veterans plus advanced equipment?

Unlikely.

Besides, even with advances in air transport I suspect the 1950s doctrine will still lean heavily on sea transport to reinforce Europe. There are just too many ships available, even if they stopped production earlier in their war than we did in ours. Plus, if NATO finds themselves with their backs to the wall, they can always uncork the nukes.

Which has always been the problem with this scenario. Once someone starts losing they start to look at the nukes the way a drunk who has been on the wagon too long looks at the liquor cabinet.

Dirk swirls their brandy and claims...

Posted September 7
River crossing equipment: To conquer Europe with heavy armor je need to cross some big rivers: rivers from east-west: Vistuala (Pol) – Oder/Neisse (GER) – Elbe (GER) – Rhein/Meuse/Rhone (GER/BEN/FR/SW). And to counter attack also.
So this would be nice:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M3_Amphibious_Rig
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z3SCycWcE2E
With NATO relying on air power, the sov’s will need to have mobile aa defence: The Zsu-23-4 on a t-55 chassis and something like SA-6, SA-7, SA-8 and SA-9 will be in the mix. But that will be for about a third I think. The rest will be your average truck borne infantry or even boot borne infantry. With the different gauging of WP and Western trains, the Sov’s will have to truck everything in from clean socks (if they at last dumped the puttees), to fuel, food – if they don’t plunder every German supermarket and ammo. So there is an Achilles heel also.
If one in STAVKA has read Clancy, they will know that NATO is trained in spotting and subsequent killing of antenna/command vehicles. The first 2 ruble upgrade would be to add fake aireals to all vehicles then.

Turlogh Dubh O'Brien reckons...

Posted September 8
The Sovs have to do what the Israelis did in 1967. They gotta take out the Allied airplanes before they take off. Israel did this through a mixture of Egyptian incompetence, disinformation and sheer bravery with some luck. The Sovs have to radar jam, sabotage, etc. - and the Allies have to make sure it doesn't happen.

Murphy_of_Missouri has opinions thus...

Posted September 8
With the Sovs that is probably going to require some Spetnaz action behind the lines before the war proper starts.

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Don Bagert reckons...

Posted September 7
JB: Concerning Final Impact, I don't remember any chips falling at the end of it, but there was lots of nuclear fallout from the seven atomic bombs :P

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jl ducks in to say...

Posted September 7
Given the parameters JB has outlined, it's hard not to think that the US Army as a field force in Europe will be seriously degraded. I made an OOB for the Army that I shot to JB, and looking at it, it's obvious that it will be a matter of weeks before significant US forces can be brought to bear in the European Theater. (Some forces, like the XVIII Corps, could be there in days. However, if you commit forces piecemeal then you are begging for defeat in detail, especially against the numbers the Red Army will be bringing.) Not being really familiar with the Allied forces available in theater in the Fifties, what is left? The British and French Armies will surely have robust forces available, and a reformed Bundeswehr with good equipment will be a must. What forces do the Dutch and Belgians have? How many of these forces are going to be "fixed" or tied down responding to airborne operations? The local European forces are going to have to soak up the first waves of attacks, so we have to get a good grasp on the numbers.

Murphy_of_Missouri mumbles...

Posted September 7
Why would they repeat the same mistake as they did during the Cold War? Especially if the contemporary US knows or suspects what Stalin's intentions are? He gave a pretty clear indication that he is not going to sit behind the Iron Curtain and wait for history to destroy him. The US would probably provide far more in the way of conventional forces than it did previously.

Dirk reckons...

Posted September 7
@jl NL (1989) 3 mech inf divisions (1/3 regular in Germany rest on about 96 hours mobilisation time (operatie Donderslag - Op Thunderclap), one Independent brigade (reserve), 1 marine brigade (for service with the Brits in Norway), 1 brigade (natres) rear echelon, 200 fighters, 50 choppers, 12 frigates, 2 resupply. In the 50's we had a carrier and 2 cruisers also.

BEL (89): 2 mech divisions, 1 Lux bataljon, 150 fighters, 30 choppers, 3 frigates, 12 minesweepers and a support ship.

jl is gonna tell you...

Posted September 7
Murph, yeah, I figured a lot of the same mistakes wouldn't be made all over again, so in my OOB I kept the Army fairly strong, conventionally. Dirk, Thx for the data. Something told me you would know this stuff.

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HAVOCK21 is gonna tell you...

Posted September 7
Jl,
I think the Allies might look very closely at the German models used on the Eastern Front, in terms of defensive equipment. If you can keep air-cover or at least keep it neutral, your ground forces have a shot.Now having said that, they must be defensively strong and able to withstand saruration rocket attacks, Chem weapons as well.
Which gives me a hankering for the Merkva style tank, Inf and armour buttoned up initially. Strong SAM presence too. Maybe a lot of SAM coverage from the channel. What about specialty ships in Port in UK , have your pre positioned equipment there, then if you can maintain air coverage over the channel the ability for a strike against them is a lot lower.
2 -You could far more easily block both ends of the channel with a High Density field of underwater mines ( captor type), Subs and mobile ASW Forces. That ASW screen also adds to the SAM screen as well.
Stop Gaps.
Add reactive armour onto tanks and UP GUN tanks. Increase top armour as well. Your initial defensive Forces in Europe do not need to be Rapidly Mobile.

MINE FIELDS…lots, bleed the first waves! Assuming holes are not punched in lines with Nukes.
Airbases will be in England and on the west coast!, make attackers transit across England through SAM fields and defensive fighters to get them.
Again, cruise Missiles with cluster munitions and anti tank bomblets…….. LOT OF THEM.
ICELAND. Big base, BIG B52 base for saturation attacks.
Refit a lot of US W2 Carriers out with defensive weapons and perhaps if its opted for Jump Jets or Choppers. AMPHIB Groups and large.
Med, islands. Fortify!!!

jl mutters...

Posted September 7
Excellent suggestions, Havock. And the Merkava is an impressive beast, I had the chance to examine one once on a staff trip to Israel. And you are absolutely right about mine fields and cruise missiles- the NATO planning staffs are no fools, and they know that they will always be heavily outgunned. Now we get to be JB's staff and think all this stuff through. Still though, what are the numbers (in divisions), that can be counted on for the defense?

HAVOCK21 reckons...

Posted September 7
Gotta give that some more thought.
But what about this.

If I was the US Prez, I would have had my Subs laying Captor / Moray mines that are freq activated throughout Sov territory. I would also look at perhaps a cruise Missile with a payload that is a sonar system. The unit drops its cargo over the previously laid mine filed and on hitting the water activates, arming the hidden sea bed mines. This saves on the issues of sending in a sub in hostile times to activate the sea mines.

I would for the same reason look at aerial deliverable mines form long range cruise missiles, they don’t need to be ultra smart, just fly to the co ordinates and dispense cargo.

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Dirk ducks in to say...

Posted September 7
@murphy @ jl @havoc I ve send JB a draft OrBat for NATO 3 days ago. I think we should compare notes. If you contact me with an email adress via the facebook, twitters or http://www.dirkdejager73.nl/contact/ , i'll send you a copy.


Been reading up in Final Impact: there are already a few nice toys in play. The ASM-1, the Hercules and the Hawaii class flattops for example.


On the Red Army: In FI they are fielding the T-55 in large numbers. Russians tend to stick to their toys and if they are smart upgrade them too. A first strike weapon in their arsenal would be GRU assassination squads for taking out the political and military leaders of NATO. Decapitation by terror. At least that was the theory in the cold war. Operation RYAN it was called.


Further look up Operational Maneuver Groups: after a break through had been achieved, these formations were intended to exploit it. A modern day cavalry so to say.

For mining apart from captor style mines (which nowadays are single shot: how many mk 46 or 48's can you fit in a 20/40ft shipping container?? ) you could employ quickstrike. It's a mk80 bomb with a magnetic, or accoustic triggerd fuse. A b-52 could drop 80 in one run.


jl mumbles...

Posted September 7
Dirk, done deal. Be glad to shoot you my stuff.

Dirk would have you know...

Posted September 7
Yeah found it, stuff is in the mail for ya.

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DarrenBloomfield ducks in to say...

Posted September 7
Man. This is going to be EPIC.

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Dirk mutters...

Posted September 7
@Darren: to use the words of Mike Judge: Yo momma! :)

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HAVOCK21 would have you know...

Posted September 7
Gotta say I am in a quandary. Are the German people sick of WAR and the Military or Are they ready to fight more Russian hordes. I think the Latter.
At the end of WW2 there were approx. 450K troops of Germany deployed across NORWAY I believe. All vets, plus whats left at home. Add ten years and a new age group or two, ranks leavened with Vets that were young. You could field 10 Divisions for Germany of Mechanised Infantry, add to that 5 Divisions of Armour and I mean heavy Armour. Arty plus attachments will take up another 6 Divisions.

Found some archived docs on NATO and or more relevance, the integration and building of the German army in latter 1950’s, The Bundeswehr near the end of that period were fielding approx. 10 divisions. It was noted by British and American observers of an exercise, that not only were the German Ranks a mix of young conscripts, but veterans, their combined arms efficiency was through the roof and motivation was as well. Given the Aot Differences, you could push that 10 up to 15 divisions for the Germans. I would suggest a 6/4 ration of Inf and Armour, plus Arty, log, ADef units and ancillary ones to.

Should check, but OTH a German Div is heavier in numbers than the Soviets. And the Defensive bent would be too, then in terms of outright fire power it could be as much as a third if you do not factor in Soviet TUBE systems….thats a fkn whole new level of hurt, but not controllable at the Brigade/ Battalion level for the soviets..

jl ducks in to say...

Posted September 7
The Germans will certainly defend the Heimat. They will be a potent force for sure. In other news, reading SM Stirlings new book "Prince of Outcasts." Stirling casts JB as King of Capricornia! Sweet!

Turlogh Dubh O'Brien asserts...

Posted September 8
No doubt the Germans will fight hard. Read Gerhard Kramer's "We Shall March Again" to remove all doubt. Plus in the West, it's historically been easier to sell Russophobia than Prussophobia, so to speak.

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HAVOCK21 puts forth...

Posted September 7
As some know I write me own scribble and Ill list below one of the new weapons systems, the other Ill post to you JB, cos I think its a fkn cracker and might be very interesting in the next series. Here one of trhe systems.

FROM the HAVOC R & D DESIGN LABS:

Long Range anti ship Strike torpedo. LRASST
Ramjet propelled carry platform. Holds 4-6 liquid nitrogen propelled underwater semi acoustic torpedos with armour piercing heads.
Ramjet range is 300 kilometres, terminal phase ejection of torpedos can be pre-set or based on threat detection levels.
Max range of torpedos is 30 kilometres. Max speed is 80 knots or 148 kilometres per hour. Covering 30 kilometres in a little over 12 minutes.

Weight- 500 kilos
Length 2M
Diameter is 500mm
Range 30 kilometres at 90 knots ( 12 minute intercept time)

Warhead. Armour piercing 50kgs. Incendiary

Same size as a Tomahawk TASM/ TLAM and able to be fired from the VLS systems of Burke DDGS and similar ships such as the AWD.
Brief:
The LORASST VLS launched Anti-ship surface attack missile is designed to penetrate high threat sea warfare environment. The LRAT as the weapon system is known consists of a primary launch vehicle for transit to the area of attack. The Vehicle is a highly modified tomahawk surface attack missile system with significant modifications to allow it to carry its new payload. Additionally THE MISSILE HOUSES AN ENHANCED EW AND SURFACE SEARCH / ATTACK SYSTEM. The advent of advanced surface to air defensive missile systems, CIWs systems and Cap aircraft have made the chances of missiles penetrating the AAW screen that much slimmer, only with large scale saturation attacks can ASM’s hope to penetrate and sink enemy surface vessels. It was with this in mind that the DSTO looked at conducting attacks against the surface fleets in an environment where defensive counter measures are minimal and the advantage lies with the attacker. It was this drive that prompted the creation of a multiple missile carrying platform that could then deliver high speed ASuW missiles against the surface fleet from a standoff distance that would deliver greater survival rates of the delivery platform.


Carriage.
4 independent configurable surface vessel attack torpedoes are carried per launcher. The launcher can be carried by all aircraft certified to carry the tomahawk cruise missile delivery system, all surface and sub-surface vessels inclusive.
The LRAT ASuW missile system carrying within its nose cone and additional sensors throughout the missiles main transport body, Electronic warfare sensors. The sensors are slaved to the on-board microprocessors which computes when either the final IP has been reached and to deploy the units 4 independent high speed anti-ship torpedoes, or the threat detection threshold reach a sufficient intensity requiring deployment of the torpedoes before the main body unit is engaged and destroyed.
Post launch of the 4 independent attack torpedo, the main body unit goes into terminal attack profile with a rapid series of jinks and if programmed a final pop up manoeuvre before attacking the target set.
Current LRAT units are equipped with enhanced Link17 communications for two way data and coms, enabling the camera feed from the nose to be observed and additional targets selected if required.
The high speed torpedoes of the LRAT whilst having a armoured nose cone, have behind the seeker head a millimetre wave radar and passive sonar sensors on the front canards,


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HAVOCK21 asserts...

Posted September 7
How far into southern France did the ruskies make it, did they get to the bay of Biscay or not?

Dirk asserts...

Posted September 7
Hmm JB wasn't clear about that in FI. Let's say for starters the southeastern corner (swiss to spanish border)?

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Rhino reckons...

Posted September 8
All of this extraneous detail, blah, blah, blah is taking the focus away from what is really important, in re: "LIKE INGLORIOUS BASTERDS, ONLY SEXIER."

Turlogh Dubh O'Brien puts forth...

Posted September 8
"My name is Maj. Pavel Ivanov and I'm putting together a special team, and I need me eight soldiers. Eight Russian-American soldiers. Now, y'all might've heard rumors about the armada happening soon. Well, we'll be leaving a little earlier. We're gonna be dropped into Greece, dressed as civilians. And once we're in enemy territory, as a bushwhackin' guerrilla army, we're gonna be doin' one thing and one thing only... killin' Commies. Now, I don't know about y'all, but I sure as hell didn't come down from the goddamn Ural Mountains, cross five thousand miles of water, fight my way through half of Italy and jump out of a fuckin' air-o-plane to teach the Commies lessons in humanity..."

HAVOCK21 swirls their brandy and claims...

Posted September 8
Rhino I am still seing you here in this movie http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2177771/?ref_=nm_flmg_act_6

Guess who?

insomniac reckons...

Posted September 8
What could possibly make it sexier?

Therbs mumbles...

Posted September 10
The order of battle is:
1 Rhino plus sidekicks (if he needs them).
Resupply needs are:
ammo, whiskey and cigars.
Problem solved.

HAVOCK21 would have you know...

Posted September 10
You FKN FORGOT ONE HAVOCK as well!

Therbs mutters...

Posted September 11
Order of battle for Asia-Pacific:
1 Fkn Havock with Fkn Muppet Capping stuff.

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Turlogh Dubh O'Brien is gonna tell you...

Posted September 8
Will the notorious KGB Directorate S covert agents play a role in WW3.1??? I can't imagine they won't.

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Aaron would have you know...

Posted September 13
For some reason my comments won't stick. Would live to see what modding of existing weapons could happen for lower tier or civilian units (or even civilians who don't trust peace treaty). Building all these fancy toys costs money, especially the hammer. I always liked that example of the modded Ak 47 in Elysium

Dirk mumbles...

Posted September 13
Yep, we are think about that too ..

By the way: Telefon?

Turlogh Dubh O'Brien mumbles...

Posted September 20
"Miles to go before I sleep..." :)

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Rhino would have you know...

Posted September 16
Besides hardware, what impact would uptime war fighting doctrine have?

Murphy_of_Missouri swirls their brandy and claims...

Posted September 17
I think the hardware gear geek thing is why I've not been participating in these threads of late. Doctrine, on other hand, seems to be underexamined.

I mentioned somewhere around here that current doctrine in the U.S. Army revolves around the Brigade Combat Team as the building block of any deployable force. These BCTs seem to me to be a return to the much older Regimental Combat Teams of the original timeline circa World War II/Korean War.

I suspect the contemporaries would take the best elements from the uptime BCT doctrine and incorporate that into their RCT formations, saving themselves a lot of hassle and fuck knuckling around.

Another mistake they would probably try to avoid is an overreliance upon a nuclear deterrent as a cost saving measure with regards to a conventional ground force. And as we've seen in the early installments of Stalin's Hammer, Stalin himself is busily at work neutralizing that deterrent anyway.

My two cents.

jl ducks in to say...

Posted September 17
Agreed, Murph.

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HAVOCK21 would have you know...

Posted September 17
Concur Murph.

The Air land Battle and the strike deep whilst attacking the first echelon will be something they will blend. The Sov's will probable know this and try to Counter too

Dirk, JB , shot you an e/mail. I have completed the Soviet ORBAT for 1955 ( actual) for Central EU and am fleshing that out now. Trying to include Southern France and Italy as well. Maps to follow, I have them for mark up , but determining finish lines for soviets advance is a BITCH!

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NBlob ducks in to say...

Posted September 19
Nice one JB.

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Respond to 'Pepsi Challenge: World War 3.1 '

First Draft done

Posted August 25 into Writing by John Birmingham

Just put the last full stop in place and compiled the Scrivener file of Paris. 48 250 words. I'll give the Word doc a read thru this arvo and tomorrow, and send it out to Beta.

Publication in late September, I reckon, depending on the pro-edit.

33 Responses to ‘First Draft done’

jl puts forth...

Posted August 25
Always gives a feeling of accomplishment when you get to that stage. Well done, sir, take a micro break. Looking forward to reading your latest effort, revisited all of the AoT books recently so that I'm up to par.

Alister asserts...

Posted September 6
Just like JL, I've trawled AoT over the last few days, and am back doing Stalin's Hammer. It's bloody awesome, and better than moping over having put my beloved on a plane yesterday and not seeing her until Dec.

BRING ON PARIS, JB! Watchu got?

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Murphy_of_Missouri ducks in to say...

Posted August 25
Boom! Mic-drop.

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Peter Bradley has opinions thus...

Posted August 25
Just a tad excited by this....just a tad.

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Marzuk mumbles...

Posted August 26
So excited, this can't come soon enough. Will make the wait till the new AoT stuff next year a but more bearable

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Turlogh Dubh O'Brien reckons...

Posted August 26
This just made my day! I will make myself one of those website countdowns that calculate it down to a second until arrival...

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Bondiboy66 ducks in to say...

Posted August 26
Choice bro!

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she_jedi swirls their brandy and claims...

Posted August 26
I can feel an epic *squeeee* coming on

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NBlob mutters...

Posted August 27
I'm going to need an infographic and some reading time to catch up before spoilopalooza

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Rhino mumbles...

Posted August 28
Finished first read through on the beach.

All I have to say is, dammmmnnnnnnnnnn, dude.

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insomniac ducks in to say...

Posted August 28
No beta read this time?

John Birmingham is gonna tell you...

Posted August 28
Yeah. I'll just sending out the main round of invites now. Wanting to test the new platform with a smaller group first.

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Rhino is gonna tell you...

Posted August 29
I hate to taunt, (read that as "sorry, not sorry") ... But this is some awesome stuff. Since AoT is what brought a lot of us to the table to begin with, there is great joy in seeing these characters again ... And so many surprises.

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DarrenBloomfield has opinions thus...

Posted August 29
I just read up to chapter 4 on my lunch break.

I'm just waiting for the shocking JB Universes cross-over reveal: Slim Jim to The Dave "I am your father". Kinda both think with the same brain.

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DarrenBloomfield ducks in to say...

Posted August 29
crap, posted in wrong thread, Soz

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jl mutters...

Posted August 29
Paris is fkn awesome! Highly recommend it to AoT junkies (like me).

DaveC swirls their brandy and claims...

Posted August 30
I concur with Jason. Paris be God damned righteous!

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DarrenBloomfield would have you know...

Posted August 30
I just finished it at lunchthine. Awesome.

I now needto go back again, since I found the last 4-5 chapters so compelling I forgot to read for edits, you know, like he's paying us big bucks to do...

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Ron Schaffer mutters...

Posted August 31
where do i find the beta - I cant wait

John Birmingham mutters...

Posted September 2
Ron. Send me your email and I'll send you a link.

Rhino is gonna tell you...

Posted September 2

NO! He doesn't get a link just by ASKING! Flinging betas out willy hilly and higgedly piggedly.That just isn't done. It has to be bestowed, after years of toil and meritorious Burger service.



Oh, who am I kidding? Come on in, the water is fine. If mostly beer and piss counts as fine.

HAVOCK21 has opinions thus...

Posted September 2
um...did you tell him about the INITIATION FKN CEREMONY! or fkn what! cos I need advance notice to buy all those fkn leftovers!

Rhino reckons...

Posted September 3
This really needs to be on the agenda for the next meeting.

NBlob mumbles...

Posted September 5
I concur. Where is Man Clumsy, always banging on about an agenda, well here's something for his agenda.
Ahem " This house agrees that Beta Readers be no longer referred to as "exclusive" "discerning" nor "select.'

HAVOCK21 puts forth...

Posted September 5
I think we say yes kinda and the CAP THE FKR!

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Sparty mumbles...

Posted September 1
still doing proofing - but story wise - bang on perfect! kind of all the good things of the Force Awakens...

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Nathan swirls their brandy and claims...

Posted September 1
I'd love to give it a read

Rhino puts forth...

Posted September 3

Nathan, quick question, How the hell am I supposed to be able to gloat about being a member of an exclusive club if everyone can be a member just by asking nicely?



Do you not give one whit of caring about my privelege?



What kind of monster are you?

DarrenBloomfield swirls their brandy and claims...

Posted September 6
He's history's greatest monster. That's what kind.

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ShushKebab has opinions thus...

Posted September 5
Wouldn't mind reading the beta too. And before anyone asks - I've been bere for ages. Long time lurker. And before you ask, I still have my copy of WW2.3 paperback copy - a tad worn out yes, but only because I read it whilst sitting on the loo.

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HAVOCK21 has opinions thus...

Posted September 6
YOU should be SHOT for that , fk me man, Its a Coulda been Nobel Prize winning fkn book if ol kb wasn't shafted. And you read it whilst on the shitter.

Adiry whips and Books, AoT dont go together in my opinion.

Loved a term I heard last night online.

" FECAL EXPLOSION" fkn wicked

HAVOCK21 puts forth...

Posted September 6
no..sorry it was that he did a FECAL JACKSON POLLACK

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Marzuk swirls their brandy and claims...

Posted September 7
Haha fecal explosion, i will somehow have to work that term into a conversation today.

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